Space mining: my forecast for when it becomes viable

Space mining is shaping up as a viable long-term business, within 60 to 80 years, focusing on the Moon and using automated technology. The goal is to extract minerals of interest to specific markets, without replacing terrestrial mining.

## The Moon as a gateway

The idea of exploiting resources in space is not new, but economic viability is the great stumbling block. My forecast places this future 60 to 80 years from now. During this time, the **Moon** emerges as the ideal operations base. Why the Moon and not Mars or other planets? Distance is a key factor; other celestial bodies are too far away, and their greater gravity would make transporting materials enormously expensive, both outbound and back to Earth.

The main strategy will focus on collecting valuable minerals directly from the lunar crust. This includes both easily processable lunar rocks and material from impacted meteorites. The key lies in efficiency: the operations base must be as light as possible to minimize logistics costs. Currently, taking one kilogram of material to the Moon costs roughly **ten times its weight in gold**.

## Automation and launch

How this mining would be carried out is just as important as where. The proposal is based on sending **automated vehicles** to the Moon, something there is already experience with. These robots, powered by photovoltaic energy, would be equipped with tools to extract and, crucially, minimally process the minerals. The aim of this initial processing would be to remove slag and reduce the weight of the material to be transported to Earth.

The great technological challenge lies in the lunar launch base. A **centrifugal propulsion** system is envisioned, which would avoid the need to constantly transport fuel from Earth. Although centrifugal launch technology is already used on our planet, adapting it to the lunar environment, with its lower gravity, presents unprecedented complexity. Once in lunar orbit, the extracted rocks would have to be launched toward Earth. To minimize degradation during atmospheric entry, special coating materials would be needed, ensuring the meteorites reach the surface as large as possible.

## Technological challenges and market niches

Despite the apparent simplicity of the concept, the technological challenges are considerable. The lunar launch base, for example, will need to reach lunar escape velocities, estimated at **8,600 km/h**, a figure above the **8,000 km/h** achieved by current systems such as **SpinLaunch**. This demands a radical improvement in materials to withstand such forces and a far more complex structure. Energy storage, whether through flywheels or high-performance batteries, will be fundamental.

In addition, more precise knowledge of the composition and distribution of lunar dust is needed to develop efficient coating materials. Orbital calculations to accurately predict where meteorites will fall on Earth, taking into account differences in rock density and launch geometry, are another critical point. Finally, optimizing long-distance launches and detailed mapping of the lunar surface to identify deposits of interest are essential to maximize efficiency and reduce costs.

Although this type of mining will not replace terrestrial mining entirely, it could open up very specific markets. The focus will be on extracting **unusual isotopes** or elements rare on Earth, such as **iridium** or **osmium**. These materials, difficult to access or scarce on our planet, could find demand in high-tech industries, creating profitable market niches for space mining.