Socialist stronghold Asturias turns against Sánchez as PSOE plummets

If elections were held today in Asturias, the PSOE would suffer a heavy blow, losing its majority and left vulnerable to a strengthened right-wing bloc.

The socialist stronghold of Asturias, a place where they have almost always ruled with few exceptions, appears to be cracking. The numbers currently being considered, nine months before the next regional elections, paint a complicated picture for the current president, **Adrián Barbón**. If the polls were accurate today, the PSOE would be left with a range of **15 to 17 seats** in the General Assembly, hitting rock bottom and matching the party's worst result in the region's recent history, recorded in **2011** under **Javier Fernández**. The difference is that Fernández was then a new candidate, while Barbón has been at the helm of the Asturian government since **2019**, and this poll is seen as a clear failure of his management.

## The blow to the left in its bastion

The PSOE's fall is significant. The party is estimated to remain at **32.4% of the vote**, translating into a loss of **4.8 points** compared to the **2023** regional elections. That's about **25,000 fewer voters**, a decline already hinted at in previous polls. This collapse occurs in a complicated national context for **Pedro Sánchez**'s government, marked by the handling of immigration in Ceuta and a series of alleged corruption cases involving important figures. Despite Barbón's efforts to carve out his own profile, distancing himself on issues like regional financing or disagreeing with the Minister of Transport, **Óscar Puente**, over the state of the highways, the summer has not been kind to his expectations. His approval rating has fallen six tenths to **4.3**, and he has lost his position as the best-rated leader to the PP's leader, **Álvaro Queipo**. The perception that he defends Asturias's interests and that he will be the next president has also diminished considerably.

## The unstoppable rise of the right

While the PSOE sinks, the right-wing bloc seems to be consolidating and, in the case of Vox, skyrocketing. The **PP**, despite losing **1.2 points** in vote estimation, remains in second position with **32%** and could stay at its current **17 seats**, though it might even lose one. However, its leader, **Álvaro Queipo**, emerges as a candidate with real chances of presiding over Asturias, leading a majority that could be the largest ever achieved by the right in the Principality. This is largely due to the spectacular growth of **Vox**. The party led by **Carolina López** jumps **7.6 points** to reach **17.9%** of the vote, and would double its parliamentary representation, going from **four to nine seats**. This advance by Vox is the only one improving its **2023** result in Asturias and recalls the percentages recently achieved in other regions such as Extremadura, Aragón, or Castilla y León, all in a context where the Ceuta crisis has been a backdrop, even though immigration does not represent a high percentage in the region. The **Foro** party, which until now had one seat, would see its representation disappear, with its voters mainly distributed between Vox and the PP.

## Absolute majority within reach

The sum of the **PP** and **Vox** would be, according to the lowest ranges of the poll, **23 seats**, just enough to reach an absolute majority in the General Assembly of the Principality. In the most optimistic scenario for the right, they could reach **26 seats**. This would leave the **PSOE** and **IU**, its junior partner in the current government, with no option to renew their pact. It is surprising that **IU**, led by **Ovidio Zapico**, resists without significant wear, losing only one tenth and maintaining its **three seats**. Meanwhile, **Podemos**, which in **2023** obtained representation through **Covadonga Tomé** (now in the Mixed Group), could win one seat with **3%** of the vote. It is plausible that some of those votes would go to its new formation, **Somos**, given the high rating that its own voters give to Tomé.