Santander Shares: From €1.50 Low to 90% Gain

Santander Stops at €1.50 and Reopens the Floor Debate

The Banco Santander share price bottomed out just shy of €1.50, allowing those who bought slightly above this minimum to record gains of nearly 90%. It sounds easy in hindsight, but it wasn't. For weeks, the prevailing question in Spanish banking discussions was where the value would stop falling: some placed the floor between €1.40 and €1.50, others lowered it to €1.60, and some even sent it down to around one euro. The most decisive voices settled the matter with a single phrase: for a bank, the floor is always zero.

That answer, which sounds like a witticism, has plenty of ammunition. Banco Popular and Abengoa are cited as reminders of what happens when an asset loses its worth. The shadow of Bankia and Deutsche Bank looms over any optimistic calculation. And a figure posted by a forum user weighs heavily in the debate: anyone who bought Spanish bank stocks in 2008 would have seen their wealth diluted by around 95%. With that history, looking at a chart with distrust isn't pessimism; it's memory.

Where Is the Floor for a Bank Stock?

At zero, and that’s not just a figure of speech. That is the level pointed to by those who remember that no bank is too big to fail and that shareholders are last in line when an institution faces trouble. Against this view stand two interpretations that differ vastly. One is based on value and liquidation: a participant argues that shareholders could liquidate the company and take home €5.50 per share, well above the trading price at the time. The other comes from those signing off on the harshest analysis, assigning the stock a value of 89 cents, a figure calculated three years prior that never appeared on screen.

Between these two extremes, almost anything fits. What nobody disputes is that Santander reached this zone after a prolonged decline, weighed down by the pandemic and an adverse political cycle for the Spanish sector. The comparison made was with Sabadell: those who positioned themselves in a single session secured an immediate 10% gain. Those holding since 2008, however, still faced losses that a rebound couldn't fix.

From €1.92 to €3.30: Levels That Defined the Trade

The technical script was simpler than it appears. Below €1.92, the scenario was bearish with a target of €1.60; above it, the radar changed direction. Entry was planned in the €1.50 zone and executed slightly higher, with the lower tip of a candle touching €1.50 just before the turn. Two sessions later came the rise. There, the first decision was taken: sell more than half, recover the investment, and keep a 7% bonus, maintaining the rest with eyes on the next ceiling.

That ceiling was €2.90, a resistance broken with low volume—a detail requiring confirmation—and opening the door to €3.30 and, beyond that, €3.80. The stock passed €3.30. The appreciation since the October entry approached 90%, a run that leaves the classic doubt: close and sleep, or let the position run with a protective cap below. On an asset that had been falling like a stone for two years, both options are defensible.

Cheap Banks vs. Expensive Tech: A Clash of Schools

The underlying discussion wasn't about Santander, but about what to buy. One school holds that a bank from a country with structural problems, excess branches, late digitalization, and a model losing its monopoly doesn't deserve money even at €1.50. Their alternative is high-quality companies in uptrends, even if they trade at higher valuations: Amazon, Microsoft, Alibaba, L'Oréal. You can endure a correction, they argue, but you won't ruin yourself buying good companies.

The counter-argument has two legs. The first is common sense: why choose between quality and cheapness when there are better banks or tech firms growing strongly without being expensive? The second is more uncomfortable: if the thesis is that BBVA and Santander management don't know what they have, remember they've been preparing for a world unlike the current one for years. Commercial banking as we know it will shrink, and insiders know this before those watching charts from the outside.

Business Future: CBDCs, Fintech, and a Former Governor's Book

There is an argument thread beyond price. Zero interest rates, regulatory pressure, Basel rules, and fintech push depict a sector forced to transform. One participant's ten-to-fifteen-year scenario involves mortgages granted by banks born from big tech, with consolidation closing branches and cutting staff. In the horizon, according to another forum user, lie interoperable central bank digital currencies worldwide, an idea dropped by a former Banco de España governor in a seminar sponsored by BBVA. Another participant also recalls a book by a former Banco de España president titled "Goodbye to Banks".

This material allows two directions. For some, it confirms traditional business is doomed and investing in it is like buying a typewriter. For others, it means the opposite: only a few banks will survive and fit into this new constellation, and current prices don't discount that scenario. The market remains unresolved.

With the stock already above €3.30, the open question isn't whether Santander had a floor, but whether the run is exhausted or if €3.80 is just the next station. Nobody knows. Those who bought near €1.50 already have their answer in their accounts, while those watching from the sidelines face the usual problem: entering late or not entering at all. The most reasonable bet, if any, is not to confuse a good rebound with a change in cycle.