Sánchez weighs not running as PSOE seeks replacement

Sánchez weighs not running as PSOE seeks replacement

The rumor spreads faster than any official statement. Pedro Sánchez would be considering stepping aside and putting someone he trusts at the forefront of the party's regeneration in this new phase. There is no confirmation, no date, no firm name. But the conversation is already installed in political circles and in forums where current affairs are trinc closely. The question is not whether Sánchez will leave, but when and to whom he will leave the position.

What is being said about Sánchez's departure

The approach circulating is simple: Sánchez has nothing to gain by running and much to lose. The most repeated reading is that the sooner he steps aside, the sooner the PSOE can be rebuilt. Some argue that the president is burned out, that he knows hard times are coming and that the wear and tear is irreversible. Others point to a less noble motivation: the need to protect himself legally when the cases in the pipeline start to fall.

Among the names being mentioned to replace him, the strongest is that of Emiliano García-Page. The Castilla-La Mancha baron has an absolute majority in Castilla-La Mancha and is credited with the ability to replicate that result at the national level. The drawback, according to the most critical analyses, is that his moderate profile would drive away votes on the left. Other possible candidates have also been mentioned, though with less insistence.

The names being mentioned for the bench

The list of possible replacements is long and varied. Alongside Page appear figures such as the president's brother, Cerdán, Ábalos, Óscar Gutiérrez, Leire, Begoña Gómez and others. The expression that best summarizes the panorama is that of a bench with plenty to choose from. Each name carries its own burdens and its own virtues, and none generates absolute consensus.

Some joke that the ideal candidate would be Marlaska, ironizing about his management at the head of the Interior Ministry. Others bet on Óscar Puente and his aggressive style, comparing him to a Kennedy. And there are those who directly ask for Begoña Gómez to run just to see the spectacle. The lack of a clear successor is, in itself, a problem for the party.

The electoral calculation that conditions everything

The scenario handled by the polls cited in the conversation is that of a PP that would remain around 140 seats and a Vox that would rise to 40. With those figures, the sum of both blocs would not be enough to govern without support, but it would not be necessary to resort to the pro-independence parties either. That is the hope of those who believe Sánchez is leaving precisely to avoid having to negotiate with Junts and PNV.

Reality is stubborn. Whoever wins, the next government will have to make pacts with the pro-independence parties, which have been decisive in governability for decades. That is the trap that no PSOE candidate can avoid, no matter how much the face on the electoral poster changes.

What will happen with Page and the party

If Page takes the step and runs, the PSOE will lose votes on the left. That is the most repeated analysis. His centrist profile and his management in Castilla-La Mancha do not fit with the more left-wing electorate that Sánchez mobilized in 2023. The question is whether those votes will go to Sumar, to Podemos or simply to abstention.

The other scenario is that Sánchez does not leave. That he holds on until the end, as other leaders have done who promised to leave and never did. The recent history of the PSOE has examples of successions that went wrong, such as Zapatero's with Rubalcaba. No one wants to repeat that mistake.

Meanwhile, the PP would already be negotiating in a preliminary way with PNV and Junts just in case. Spanish politics is like that: everyone prepares the scenario they publicly deny. And Sánchez, meanwhile, neither confirms nor denies. Only time will tell if the rumor was true or was another smoke screen.