Sánchez: the resignation some take for granted but nobody signs

Sánchez: the resignation some take for granted but nobody signs

Pedro Sánchez's resignation is taken for granted by some participants in the debate. There is no date, no letter, no official confirmation. But the conversation has stopped revolving around the "if" and has settled on the "when" and, above all, the "how". The hypothesis with the most traction these days is that the Prime Minister will not resign out of conviction, but out of calculation: that his continued tenure has become a burden for the structure he leads.

The theory of controlled attrition

There is a line of thought holding that Sánchez's departure does not respond to a sudden crisis, but to a strategy of orderly replacement. The idea, put bluntly, is that the party needs a new leader to "save the business" and that Sánchez is already "burnt out". Under that logic, there would be no elections: it would be enough to install someone who does not appear in the documents and see out the term without interruptions. The problem with this hypothesis is that it does not explain why, if the handover has been decided, it has not already been carried out.

The drip-feed of cases and the appeal of the presidency

Against the theory of an orderly handover, another part of the analysis prefers Sánchez to stay. The argument is not one of sympathy, but of news value: according to a calculation doing the rounds, there are "two or three years of unstoppable drip" of alleged corruption scandals left, and that drip has more mileage with Sánchez in the presidency than with a successor. It is a cynical position, but consistent with the logic of attrition. A resignation would shut off the tap and deprive the narrative of its main protagonist.

The judicial reform: the danger that stays off the headlines

The most technical point of the analysis, and probably the most relevant, is the reform of the justice system. If the investigation of cases comes to depend on the prosecution service, the attorney general could order the prosecutor in charge of the UCO (the police unit investigating corruption) to stop investigating the PSOE. The perversion of justice that this would entail would have to be investigated by the prosecution service itself, which is hierarchically subordinate, and not by an independent investigating judge. The practical result would be structural impunity. It is a far-reaching change that, however, occupies little space in the public conversation.

Ábalos, the UCO and the announcement that never comes

When it comes to names, attention has shifted to José Luis Ábalos. There is speculation that the former minister may cooperate with the courts and "sing". His sons would be under indictment, which would add pressure. The UCO has raided key headquarters and organisations, according to reports circulating. None of this has been officially confirmed, and it is worth remembering: these are hypotheses and leaks, not court rulings.

The letter nobody has seen

The image that sums up the mood is that of a resignation letter that is awaited but never arrives. There are jokes that "Chanche" would sign it, and that it should be framed. It is a way of saying that the resignation has become an object of desire rather than a verifiable forecast. Meanwhile, the only certainty is that Sánchez has not called elections nor announced his departure.

The prediction, with reservations, is this: if the resignation happens, it will not be because of an explosion, but because of an accumulation of attrition that at some point stops being profitable for whoever is managing it today. If it does not happen, the drip will continue, and the judicial reform will remain the piece nobody looks at that changes everything.