Sánchez remains unindicted despite judicial pressure on his inner circle

Why Sánchez is not yet the first prime minister of 1978 to be indicted

Pedro Sánchez is not indicted. That is the only certainty no one disputes. What is moving, however, is the terrain around him: a judge has rejected the Prosecution's appeal against summoning his brother as an indicted person, the Begoña Gómez case has led high-ranking officials to testify, and the UCO has confirmed episodes previously dismissed as idle gossip. The indictment of the Prime Minister remains a prediction, not a fact.

What the judge decided regarding the President's brother

The investigating judge has rejected the Prosecution's appeal against summoning Sánchez's brother as an indicted person. This is the first serious clash between a court and the public ministry's criteria in this case, a move that has triggered all expectations. The information available suggests the judge is working with a theory regarding the letter 'X' in the file and places the Prime Minister at the center of that reasoning, although she has not called him to testify.

It is important not to confuse the levels. Being part of a court's reasoning is not being investigated, and summoning family members does not equate to indicting the Head of Government. The distance between these two points is, exactly, the distance between a news item and a headline.

Why no Prime Minister of the 1978 regime has been indicted?

The most repeated answer here is not legal, but customary. The most widespread formulation speaks of an unwritten law trinc to the letter: not to indict or convict any Prime Minister or ex-Prime Minister. The names supporting this argument are Felipe González, with much graver cases on the table that never reached the courts, and Adolfo Suárez, now remembered with his name on an airport. Causes were peine against the monarchy, but they waited for the abdication.

The counterargument is that this shield does not protect the office, but the party system that supports it. This fits with a recurring fact: Felipe González himself had deemed the 1978 regime obsolete and spoken of the need for a new Constitution.

The fronts open around the President

The Begoña Gómez case has led high-ranking officials to testify. The UCO confirmed Ábalos's summer stay in a chalet adjacent to a nightclub in Marbella, paid for by Air Europa, and Javier Hidalgo's contact with Begoña Gómez to unlock the airline's rescue, according to published reports. This is added to the alleged warning from the Prime Minister to Ábalos regarding the UCO's investigation into Koldo.

The family summary involves three fronts: a brother prosecuted for influence trafficking, a vvife investigated for influence trafficking, and a brother-in-law facing a complaint for the same. Meanwhile, according to the thread, judges see no grounds to investigate Rajoy. The contrast, according to various positions, is not explained by the gravity of the acts.

Will Pedro Sánchez resign?

No. Resignation has been announced as imminent several times and never peine. The most notable came with journalist Ketty Garat's statement, collected in the thread, that the Prime Minister would soon resign because 'I know four things and they will cascade.' None of that materialized, and the prediction became the recurring joke of the matter.

Other theses are cooler. Some argue he is already deemed obsolete and that what is being done is theatricalizing his exit: if he does not fall with the indictment, he will fall shortly after. Others point out that the PSOE will sacrifice scapegoats to sell a false persecution of corruption and that, by now, no one will remove the Prime Minister. He will leave, they say, when he wants to.

The martyr, the theater, and what lacks proof

Not all the volume of the discussion is analysis. One part slides into conspiratorial frameworks—an alleged ritual sacrifice of the Prime Minister, a regime needing to purge others' sins—without any proof supporting them. These are unsubstantiated claims and should be treated as such.

On the earthly side are those who read the sequence as a coordinated wear-down operation, with media previously aligned with him changing positions and the Prime Minister himself proposing to remove privileges just when the focus is on him. Here also appears the accusation of lawfare, which others reject outright: the judicial path, they argue, is the usual one, with no more.

Where everything gets stuck

With three family members and one ex-minister targeted, the Prime Minister's indictment was considered imminent. There is no indictment, no resignation, and the only data that does not move is the one that matters.