Sánchez Enters Fourth Term With Housing as Key Battleground

Sánchez’s Fourth Term: Housing, Minimum Wage, and Taxes in Limbo

Pedro Sánchez remains at the helm of Spain’s government, starting a new four-year legislative term. The coalition supporting him has been reconfigured, leaving the right-wing opposition out once again. The outcome has divided even non-voters: some openly admit indifference toward the PSOE, satisfied just to see political turmoil on the opposing side; others cannot forgive the shift, bitterly recalling the Prime Minister’s promise not to include certain partners in the Executive.

The key fact defining this start is simple: four years. Everything else is interpretation. Three fronts are already on the table that allow no ambiguity: rental housing, the minimum wage, and tax bills.

What Changes Does the New Government Bring to Rentals and Housing?

The most concrete commitment put forward is by Yolanda Díaz: regulating seasonal rentals, ending golden visas, and reviewing tax deductions for home purchases. This is the measure raising the most controversy, as it simultaneously affects middle-class savings and the short-term rental business. The recurring idea is that owning a small apartment as a pension plan has its days numbered.

Some argue these announcements will remain unimplemented, with regulation postponed to the next term. Others believe external pressure will force them through, noting the text does not originate in Madrid. Currently, only the political commitment is verifiable, without specific legislation or timelines.

The Narrative Explaining It All: Brussels, 2018 Oil Peak, and Agenda 2030

A hypothesis circulates that should be treated as such, lacking proof: that the housing package is imposed by Brussels in exchange for EU funds, driven by an underlying oil scarcity crisis—the so-called PEAK OIL of 2018—and that the ultimate goal of the Agenda 2030 is to push populations into cities near factories, anticipating a life without private cars. From this perspective, the Spanish government would be little more than a manager of foreign decisions.

This is not an isolated reading. It helps explain why some measures are rushed and also justifies abstention: if everything is decided elsewhere, voting seems futile. The practical result mirrors classic disillusionment, which matters significantly given the tight parliamentary margins.

What Is the Tax Cost of the Pact?

Here appears a specific figure, launched by a debate participant and worth taking with caution: nearly €650 more per year in taxes. No official breakdown exists for this estimate. It emerges amidst inter-territorial tax competition, where each cut announcement forces others to react.

Hence the repeated warning: if one region lowers taxes, the next must trinc or fall behind. This dynamic, rather than ideological debate, will determine what taxpayers ultimately pay.

Minimum Wage and Real Expectations for the Term

The unadorned request is to raise the minimum wage (SMI) and stop distracting with showcase measures. No specific figure is on the table, but there is a sense that the minimum wage is the only policy reaching pockets the same month it is approved.

Housing presents the opposite scenario. Skepticism prevails: doubts exist about building millions of social homes or seeing significant price drops. The most common prediction is that major actions will wait for the next term, as the calendar allows no time for everything.

Will There Be Early Elections Before 2027?

Doubt pervades the conversation: whether the Executive lasts four years or calls early elections. No one signs a prediction, and with these parliamentary numbers, no one should. What is assumed is the state of the opposition: the PP leader is described as politically dead after swallowing a poisoned pill, while Ayuso is pointed to as a future candidate, gaining brief prominence her boss has lacked for months.

Another structural warning: as long as VOX maintains its weight, the right-wing bloc will struggle to form a majority, extending the current government’s lifespan. Conversely, some breathe easier, arguing the PP’s return won’t bring back pandemic laws.

The Basque Laboratory: Mixed Companies and Public Rentals

When asked how to build public housing without bankruptcy, three names appear: Alokabide, Visesa, and Etxebide. The described model combines companies 50% public and 50% private, effectively placing management in hands responding to business criteria, not charity.

Two interpretations arise. One claims it works in Euskadi and can be replicated nationally. The other recalls that local success doesn’t extrapolate: these businesses rely on taxes and tenant needs, with efficiency depending on oversight.

What Remains to Be Seen

If the housing plan passes as is, the term will be remembered for it. If it remains mere announcements, likewise. The reasonable bet, with all caution required by a mandate dependent on partners who have already shown their teeth, is that something gets approved—late and watered down—and the battle over rentals continues until the last day.