Sánchez and the election call: the rumour that won't go away
Talk of an early election in Spain clashes with parliamentary arithmetic and Sánchez's own calculations. The data suggest no vote will be called.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Sánchez and the election call: the rumour that won't go away
The question keeps coming up: will Pedro Sánchez call a general election in Spain any time soon? The prevailing answer among those who trinc day-to-day politics is not the one the media are selling. It is a no. And not for lack of desire on the prime minister's part, but because of pure parliamentary arithmetic and narcissistic calculation.
The most repeated argument is that Sánchez does not bow to media pressure. If every outlet — including those of his own party — insists the call is imminent, a narcissistic profile will do the opposite to prove that his will trumps the narrative. The Pied Piper of Hamelin, Moncloa edition, does not play the tune others ask for.
The political calculation: why it doesn't suit him now
Calling an election after the setback of Friday's two decrees would be a strategic mistake. Why take the plunge when you're on the back foot? The logic says wait for a more favourable moment: when the INE (Spain's statistics office) publishes a positive figure, when a scandal breaks in the opposition, or when the amnesty and the ballot-stuffing case in the parliamentary board — still unresolved — have stopped dominating the front pages.
Some argue that all the noise around Maricarmen, the evictions and housing is a distraction manoeuvre to cover more awkward matters. And it works: the opposition talks about the topic he wants, not the one that hurts him.
Parliamentary arithmetic: no early election without reliable partners
The coldest analysis suggests Sánchez will not move until he has a reliable left-wing bloc locked in. The current cage of crickets in parliament is no invitation to dissolve the Cortes. First he will tighten the screws on Rufián and company to make them move, and only when the board is set will he take the step.
The express-dissolution hypothesis has its own mechanics: dissolving the Cortes creates the Permanent Fruta, which could approve the pending housing decrees. Everything is calculated, say the most conspiratorial. Others point out he has already committed worse atrocities without calling an election.
The human factor: young people leaving and pensions being cut
Beyond electoral calculation, an uncomfortable fact hangs in the air: the drain of qualified young people leaving Spain. Figures of two or three million are mentioned, heading to countries where the equivalent minimum wage allows more saving than here. The exodus recalls the GDR, but without a wall.
The economic backdrop is what nobody wants to look at: a possible 30% pension cut by 2027 that is already pushing some into early retirement and departure. The conclusion of the most seasoned observers is that the system cannot hold, and calling an election is the least of it.
Will there be a call tomorrow? What the data say is that, if it comes, it will be when we least expect it and with everything tied up. The question left hanging: what if the one who refuses to bend is actually bending?
The question keeps coming up: will Pedro Sánchez call a general election in Spain any time soon? The prevailing answer among those who trinc day-to-day politics is not the one the media are selling. It is a no. And not for lack of desire on the prime minister's part, but because of pure parliamentary arithmetic and narcissistic calculation.
The most repeated argument is that Sánchez does not bow to media pressure. If every outlet — including those of his own party — insists the call is imminent, a narcissistic profile will do the opposite to prove that his will trumps the narrative. The Pied Piper of Hamelin, Moncloa edition, does not play the tune others ask for.
The political calculation: why it doesn't suit him now
Calling an election after the setback of Friday's two decrees would be a strategic mistake. Why take the plunge when you're on the back foot? The logic says wait for a more favourable moment: when the INE (Spain's statistics office) publishes a positive figure, when a scandal breaks in the opposition, or when the amnesty and the ballot-stuffing case in the parliamentary board — still unresolved — have stopped dominating the front pages.
Some argue that all the noise around Maricarmen, the evictions and housing is a distraction manoeuvre to cover more awkward matters. And it works: the opposition talks about the topic he wants, not the one that hurts him.
Parliamentary arithmetic: no early election without reliable partners
The coldest analysis suggests Sánchez will not move until he has a reliable left-wing bloc locked in. The current cage of crickets in parliament is no invitation to dissolve the Cortes. First he will tighten the screws on Rufián and company to make them move, and only when the board is set will he take the step.
The express-dissolution hypothesis has its own mechanics: dissolving the Cortes creates the Permanent Fruta, which could approve the pending housing decrees. Everything is calculated, say the most conspiratorial. Others point out he has already committed worse atrocities without calling an election.
The human factor: young people leaving and pensions being cut
Beyond electoral calculation, an uncomfortable fact hangs in the air: the drain of qualified young people leaving Spain. Figures of two or three million are mentioned, heading to countries where the equivalent minimum wage allows more saving than here. The exodus recalls the GDR, but without a wall.
The economic backdrop is what nobody wants to look at: a possible 30% pension cut by 2027 that is already pushing some into early retirement and departure. The conclusion of the most seasoned observers is that the system cannot hold, and calling an election is the least of it.
Will there be a call tomorrow? What the data say is that, if it comes, it will be when we least expect it and with everything tied up. The question left hanging: what if the one who refuses to bend is actually bending?
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (26 replies).
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