Sánchez and the December 24 vote: a win already taken for granted

Sánchez and the December 24 vote: a win already taken for granted

Can a prime minister lose two decrees in Congress and still come out of an election strengthened? The thesis circulating among analysts and observers is that he can, and that on December 24 Pedro Sánchez will be sworn in again. The argument is not sentimental: it is arithmetic. 400,000 votes from Spaniards abroad that, according to critics of the system, can be placed in key provinces where a handful of ballots decide majorities. Add to that an opposition that, in the words of several commentators, keeps shooting itself in the foot.

The superhero narrative and his own sarracena code

The picture painted of the prime minister is not that of a manager: it is that of a political animal who times his moves, places his people and controls the narrative. He is credited with a sarracena code of his own, outside the rulebook, and a capacity for endurance his adversaries cannot match. Those who hold this view see him as the man in Spain for international financial powers, with a link dating back to his years in Yugoslavia. The consequence, according to this analysis, is that with Sánchez in power those powers know Spain can be carved up and degraded without any material opposition to their plutocratic plans.

It is a harsh thesis, and it should be treated for what it is: a political interpretation, not a proven fact. But it explains why many take the result for granted before polling stations even open.

The street as a pressure tool

The second pillar of the scenario is the street. A hot autumn is being prepared with two prongs: on one hand, subsidised groups that serve party interests; on the other, housing unions that, in this reading, act as Soros's agents. The timing with the electoral calendar is no coincidence for those who defend this thesis: social pressure is part of the script.

The detail that is stressed is that the protests do not seek to change any specific policy, but to set a mood. And in a mood, the opposition moves worse than the government.

The fake opposition and the debate that never comes

The third element is the opposition. It is described as a rival that shoots itself in the foot on a regular basis. In the 2023 electoral debate, according to several observers, the Popular Party's candidate was left exposed and the president ate him alive. The prediction for the next head-to-head is identical: if Feijóo accepts, he will be outmatched; if he refuses, he will be seen as the coward who does not deserve to be prime minister.

Some add that debates no longer interest almost anyone. Maybe. But the coward frame takes hold anyway.

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With all this in place, the question is not whether Sánchez wins, but how much leeway he will have to keep doing what he is already doing. And if anyone expected the ballot box to change course, the irony is that it will probably confirm it.