Sánchez and Ceuta: the masterstroke that caught everyone off guard

Ceuta: the border crisis some call a masterstroke and others a surrender

The beaches of Ceuta, early in the morning, looked like a battlefield without gunfire: hundreds of people wandering aimlessly, shops with their shutters down and a city that stopped functioning while the rest of Spain watched the chaos on television. As of this discussion, the episode remains open and the official figures still don't add up. But what is already in dispute is the narrative: some see a deliberate strategy from Moncloa (the Spanish prime minister's office), while others see nothing but a collapse with delusions of grandeur.

Moncloa's Fabian tactics

One line of argument holds that Sánchez has applied the strategy of Fabius Maximus: avoid a frontal battle, let the adversary stretch itself until it runs out of steam, and wait for exhaustion to do the work. In that framework, the departure of some of the migrants would be confirmation that patience pays off, just as when the Romans wore down Hannibal in the Italian countryside. The comparison is clever, though another part of the analysis dismisses it as an alibi for inaction: not making a move is not the same as making the right move.

Disputed figures: 57 dead and 200 per minute

The numbers circulating are contradictory. There is talk of 57 deaths during the operation, of 200 crossings per minute at the moment of peak pressure, and of some 7,000 unaccompanied foreign minors who would have left for regions governed by the PP (Spain's conservative People's Party). But verification is a minefield: several videos supposedly showing people leaving the city are claimed to be reversed, which would turn the "departure" into an "arrival" and demolish the success narrative. With that level of noise, any conclusion is provisional.

The local cost of the move

While the strategists argue over who won, Ceuta counts its losses: supermarkets looted, bakeries closed and a local economy paralysed. Some invoke the scorched-earth tactic, and not exactly as a compliment. The precedent of Perejil, which in 2002 took six days to resolve, is cited as a reminder that these episodes can drag on longer than anyone would like.

The baffling fact at the close: nobody knows how many people remain inside. The "masterstroke" has a tangible cost that doesn't show up in the slogans.