S&P 500 Defies Crash Warning, Rallies 3.26% in April

Urgent S&P 500 Crash Warning Ends With 3.26% Rally

The S&P 500 did not plummet into the abyss. It surged 3.26% in a single session. The alert that kicked off the week of April 21, 2025, described an unmistakable bearish trend and included a continuation chart to justify an imminent collapse. The market ignored the chart.

During those same days, the DOW JONES fell as much as 2.69%, and sentiment resembled seeing the tip of the iceberg. The aftermath was harsh: those who sold everything to avoid losses watched the index rise without them. Some openly asked whether the goal was for it to drop so they could buy lower, or simply for everyone else to lose too. First unwritten rule of the stock market: no one forgives you for being right by exiting.

Those Who Sold Now Eye Charts With Resentment

This pattern repeats whenever an index wobbles. Portfolios holding steady fill up with defensive narratives, while emptying ones seek company in misfortune. One case sums up the cycle: an investor put in €40,000 when the S&P traded at 6,000 points and now struggles to face the mirror. The anecdote is told without drama, but it clarifies who enters and exits at the worst moment.

There is also a composition problem. For months, thousands of retail savers switched to S&P 500 indexed funds like signing up for a pension plan and forgetting about it. When the index drops 15%, these people discover they didn't buy fixed income. The recurring complaint—now that everyone talked about index funds, what do the gurus say?—points to something more uncomfortable than a fad: a massive transfer of retail money into a single asset, the very one expected to sink.

From Double Bottom at 4,800 to 90-Day Tariff Truce

The underlying bullish scenario has defenders too. The most repeated hypothesis holds that the S&P falls again to 4,800 points, forms a double bottom, and this second test marks the start of a new uptrend. This is not prophecy; it is a pattern requiring confirmation, contingent on resolving two open trade fronts: the US-EU agreement and the US-China deal. With these variables unresolved, volatility is guaranteed: one day it rises, the next it falls twice as much.

The fine print of the rebound appears in a financial entity's note. Announced Monday at 9 AM, it set a 90-day negotiation period where the US reduces tariffs on China to 30% and China responds with 10% on the US. The same analysis warned that the push came more from liquidity flows than solid fundamentals, noting that the economy and corporate earnings barely supported a flat market. Meanwhile, the IBEX remained around 12% below its historical high.

The Liquidity Thesis: S&P Multiplied Fivefold Since 2008

One argument overshadows all others, independent of tariffs or charts. The S&P 500 has multiplied five times since 2008, mirroring the growth in central bank monetary mass. All that money must go somewhere, and much has flowed into financial assets. From this perspective, a 15% drop is noise within a structural trend not decided by any specific politician.

The most ambitious version suggests a system that has lost equilibrium: if money is issued without restraint and reaches every corner eventually, markets break homeostasis and don't recover while the imbalance generator runs. The framework can be debated, but the accompanying data is stubborn: the highest index level compared to a year prior, amid the most turbulent geopolitics. Don't fight the FED, summarizes the key aphorism. And the classic warning—the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent—is as old as the stock market itself.

Does Technical Analysis Predict S&P 500 Crashes?

There is no consensus, and anyone claiming otherwise lies. Against the continuation chart opening the alert, veterans' response is relentless: in most situations, technical analysis is a scam. Another common critique is that these tools are just slot machines with charts where each sees the figure they want. In hindsight, everything is obvious; before it happens, one can always draft a report serving both bull and bear cases, depending on the cited paragraph.

Skepticism has grounds. A report dated May 12 begins with rebounds and abundant liquidity, offering a lukewarm diagnosis: good short-term news, medium-term doubts. Those seeking a binary signal won't find it. The abyss alert itself closed by admitting little faith in tarot cards. Surviving often means doing nothing.

The Hidden $150 Trillion Reserve

Occasionally, macro pessimism devolves into hidden treasure tales. Former CIA advisor Jim Rickards claims a forgotten asset worth $150 trillion linked to post-US Civil War legal code, protected for over 160 years, could be restored via a Supreme Court ruling. Distributed as a press release, the text speaks of wealth suppressed for over a century.

Handle with distance. It is hard to believe someone fixed materials needed today 160 years ago, or that secrecy breaks precisely now. If such a financial deposit existed, interest in other resource-rich territories wouldn't make sense, though they have been on the table. These stories serve a function: giving the crash an epic alibi.

---

What to expect? The most repeated forecast suggests that when the grace period ends, the index will fall again and recover lost ground the next day as if nothing peine. More exploitable noise for those who can swim between waters, and a trap for those confusing volatility with trend. Betting on collapse is easy to argue and hard to cash.