Russia's endless pendulum between Europe and Asia: a third attempt?

Russia's endless pendulum between Europe and Asia: a third attempt?

Russian history has often been described as a pendulum swinging between two poles. A classic framework divides it into four periods: the first European one (862-1223) with the founding of Kievan Rus; the first Asian one (1223-1682) after the Mongol invasions; the second European one (1682-1917) with Peter the Great's reforms; and a second Asian period that would begin with the 1917 revolution. The question hanging in the air is whether the pendulum will swing back toward the West.

The war in Ukraine as a turning point

The Ukrainian conflict is seen as Russia's third attempt to rejoin the European framework, and the outcome, according to the prevailing analysis, has been a slow bleed. Beyond the human and material cost, the war has generated deep rejection across Eastern Europe. The invasion has cemented an anti-Russian sentiment that makes any future rapprochement difficult. Meanwhile, Chinese influence in Russia's east is growing rapidly, with a repopulation process drawing Moscow closer to Asia and further from Europe.

The demographic factor and social change

Russian society is becoming increasingly multiethnic. The construction of new mosques and the arrival of people from Central Asia are reshaping the cultural landscape. This demographic shift, combined with the loss of influence in the Asian steppe to Turkic peoples, is pushing Russia eastward. The Far East, for its part, is falling ever more under China's demographic and economic orbit.

The cultural appeal: from Peter the Great to today

The era of Peter the Great was marked by the genuine fascination of the Russian elite with European technology and culture. Today, that appeal has faded. From Moscow's perspective, Europe offers mediocre economic growth and an inability to guarantee its own defense. The argument is made that Russia sees the West as a continent in decline, which removes any incentive for a new European turn. Even so, there are those who maintain that Russia's urban, educated classes still feel drawn to European values and lifestyles, in contrast to the deep Russia that underpins the current regime.

The collapse scenario and the final question

Some analyses suggest that only a collapse of the Russian state, similar to that of the USSR in 1991, could return Ukraine, Belarus and the historical territories of Kievan Rus to the European sphere. However, the Asian steppe and the Far East would already be lost to that hypothetical Europe. The underlying question is whether the Russian pendulum, after centuries of swinging, will ever find a point of balance, or whether its future is definitively anchored in Asia.