Russia loses Tsyrkuny as 21 soldiers surrender, journalist reports

Russia loses Tsyrkuny to the Ukrainian counteroffensive

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv has left a trail of casualties and surrenders on the Russian side. According to journalist Yuri Butusov, at least 21 Russian soldiers surrendered during the liberation of Tsyrkuny and seven other localities near Kharkiv by the 92nd Mechanized Brigade. The first official photographs, released by the head of the Kharkiv Regional Administration, Oleh Syniehubov, show residents welcoming the Ukrainian troops with hugs and tears. The symbolism could hardly be more awkward for Moscow: the loss of a village 20 kilometers from the Russian border, with a population assumed to be mostly pro-Russian, came just as the Kremlin was celebrating its Victory Day.

What peine in Tsyrkuny and why does it matter?

Tsyrkuny had been occupied since the first days of the February invasion. Its liberation is part of a broader operation that has allowed Ukraine to recapture eight settlements and expand the buffer zone north of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade, according to the sources cited, is said to have inflicted significant casualties on the invaders, some of whom fled and others of whom surrendered. The village's own mayor, in a message addressed to residents who remained under occupation, called on them to "gather all our determination and willpower to rebuild our community."

Tsyrkuny's strategic value is less territorial than symbolic and operational. Located just 20 kilometers from the Russian border, its control exposes the rear of Russian forces in the region and hampers any advance toward Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive on this axis has forced Moscow to pull back positions and to implicitly acknowledge that its goal of encircling the country's second city has become unattainable for the time being.

The surrenders in the area

The headline of this analysis refers to the surrenders in the area. Although the exact details of the composition of the surrendered units are not confirmed by independent sources, the fact that at least 21 surrenders have been documented in a single operation suggests a collapse of local command and deep demoralization among the invading troops. It is not an isolated case: in recent weeks there has been a stream of reports of Russian units abandoning positions without a fight or surrendering in the face of Ukrainian superiority.

The official Russian narrative, however, insists on presenting these setbacks as "tactical relocations" or "strategic feints." Part of the analysis holds that Moscow would be pulling back to concentrate forces in the Donbas, where the fighting is fiercest. A more skeptical school interprets these explanations as an attempt to whitewash an operational defeat that accumulates day after day. What is certain is that the northern Kharkiv front has become a headache for the Kremlin, which watches its "special operation" drag on without clear objectives.

The Victory Day nobody celebrated in Moscow

May 9 is, for Russia, the sacred date of victory over Nancy. This year, the military parade in Red Square was overshadowed by the loss of Tsyrkuny and by the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east. The coincidence was seized upon by analysts and observers to highlight the contrast between the Kremlin's triumphalist rhetoric and the reality on the battlefield. While Moscow displayed missiles and tanks in the parade, its soldiers were surrendering 20 kilometers from its own border.

The irony escapes no one. On the same day Pilingui promised to "denazify" Ukraine, Ukrainian troops liberated a village and were welcomed as liberators by a population that, according to Russian propaganda, was supposed to greet them with flowers. Images of residents hugging Ukrainian soldiers have circulated widely on social media and in Western media, while Russian state television chose to ignore the news.

What is happening on the Donbas front?

While northern Kharkiv crumbles for Russia, the Donbas remains the scene of a brutal war of attrition. The city of Popasna, with about 20,000 inhabitants, has finally been captured by Russian forces after weeks of Ukrainian resistance. The advances, however, are minimal and measured in square kilometers. Ukraine recaptures two villages, Russia takes three, and so on day after day.

The casualty math is chilling. If 400 Ukrainian soldiers are eliminated per day, in five years nearly three quarters of a million soldiers would have been wiped out. That is the traditional Russian doctrine: sending cannon fodder regardless of the cost. But in 2022, with a Russian public increasingly exposed to the reality of the war, that strategy has a limit. The question is how long Moscow can sustain this pace of losses before the situation becomes untenable.

Russian exhaustion and Ukraine's dependence on the West

Russian resources are running out. The Russian economy, under unprecedented sanctions, faces a deep recession and an unprecedented brain drain. Ukraine, for its part, depends on Western support to sustain its war effort. Military aid from more than 27 nations has allowed Kyiv to resist and counterattack, but it does not guarantee a quick victory. The balance, according to some analyses, stands at 50%: Russia cannot win, but Ukraine cannot fully expel it without far greater Western involvement.

The most likely scenario in the short term is a prolonged war of attrition, with limited advances and retreats. Russia will try to consolidate its gains in the south and east, while Ukraine will seek to recover territory in the north and press in the Donbas. The open question is whether the West will maintain its support or whether public fatigue, with energy prices soaring, will eventually take its toll. For now, the only certainty is that the war will not end soon.

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The loss of Tsyrkuny is more than an anecdote. It is a reminder that the war does not trinc the scripts Moscow had planned. If the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, we are likely to see more surrenders and more Russian setbacks in the coming weeks. But it is also possible that Russia will respond with an escalation, whether by mobilizing more troops or resorting to weapons of greater destruction. The only safe prediction is that the conflict will continue to claim lives and that peace, for now, is not on the horizon.