Russia could strike NATO's supply routes, analysis warns

Russia could destroy NATO's logistics: the scenario dividing opinion

Could Russia destroy NATO's logistics networks without crossing the line into all-out war? The question is no longer armchair theory. Among the military analyses circulating these days, the idea is gaining weight that Moscow, cornered in Ukraine, could strike back at the infrastructure that sustains the allied war effort.

The argument rests on an asymmetry: NATO supplies weapons to Ukraine and operates from the Baltic countries, while Russia refrains from hitting allied territory. An incident involving an explosive-laden drone at a maximum-security airport is cited as a warning that this restraint has an expiration date. If the Alliance is a party to the conflict, one school of analysis asks, why should Europe's refineries and supply lines remain untouched?

The tactical nuclear option is on the table

The harshest scenario goes beyond conventional bombing. Some argue that a surprise attack with tactical nuclear weapons against the full set of NATO air and missile bases on European soil, excluding the American ones, would be "the logical move." The figure being floated is unsettling: fewer than a hundred detonations would suffice to decapitate the allied logistics network, taking advantage of the current shortage of air defense assets.

Against this, another camp points out that Russia has been holding back for months and has never sought all-out war with the Alliance. The question is not capability but willingness. The million-euro bet that it will not happen sums up the skeptics' conviction well.

The risk of unstoppable escalation

The problem is that attacking the infrastructure of a member country would trigger Article 5 and turn a proxy war into a direct conflict between nuclear powers. Those who back the hard option accept this: escalation would spiral out of control, but we are already on the brink.

What nobody disputes is that the margin for error has shrunk to almost nothing.

History has not yet passed judgment between strategy and bluff. But if you work near a European refinery, perhaps you should not linger over your coffee.