Rumor of electoral deadlock to elevate Ayuso divides Spain's PP

Rumor of electoral deadlock to elevate Ayuso

A rumor circulating in People's Party (Partido Popular) circles has raised alarms at headquarters: a faction aligned with the Madrid president is allegedly misadvising the candidate and undermining his campaign with a clear goal. To provoke a deadlock in the general election. To force Feijóo's downfall. And to present Ayuso as the candidate for 2024, starting from 160 seats with an absolute majority as the target.

The hypothesis, which the message's author acknowledges as a rumor, fits the climate of internal war felt in the PP after the elections. Feijóo spoke of an absolute majority on Sunday. By Monday, his fruta was sinking and his inner circle was attacking him mercilessly. The back pain that kept him off the campaign trail after getting up from a chair finished burying his image. In that vacuum, Ayuso's name sounds increasingly strong.

The pincer calculation: PP and Vox do not add up

Parliamentary arithmetic fuels the rumor. If the PP and Vox fail to reach a majority, the PSOE would need Junts and the CUP to invest Sánchez. And there lies the knot: separatists will not agree to anything without an independence referendum. Something that, according to this analysis, the PSOE cannot accept without breaking apart. Approving a secession referendum is unconstitutional and would require amending the Constitution. Some argue Sánchez ignores the Constitutional Court entirely. Against this, others note Puigdemont secretly leads Junts, is full of hatred, and only wants to humiliate the PSOE. He would not accept a diluted Statute. Nor would the CUP.

The result would be a deadlock. From the deadlock, Ayuso's opportunity would emerge. According to this narrative, the plan involves campaigning from 160 seats once her proclamation is official, aiming for an absolute majority. However, the move lacks credibility. "That play is complete nonsense. No one is that stupid," summarizes one of the most repeated voices. Another points out the move is medium-term: let Feijóo wear down, let his figure come into question, and then she enters without opposition.

Why doubt Ayuso can sweep outside Madrid?

Because her appeal has a map. In Madrid, she is the best-rated PP leader and the favorite among Vox voters. Outside the Community, her image fades. "Ayuso wouldn't eat a colín [a type of fish, meaning 'win nothing'] across Spain. If you think otherwise, you know nothing about politics," states one analysis. The core argument is that her profile works where she does not compete over legislating immigration, defense, or foreign affairs. She wins by absolute majority in Madrid. In Spain, that same profile could cost her votes.

There is more. A part of the right-wing electorate considers her too pogre on some fronts: feminist, pro-minors, with a program not so different from Sánchez's on certain matters. "You don't need those saddlebags for that journey," summarizes a current preferring to vote for the original rather than the copy. Others argue the opposite: that her appeal is exactly what the PP needs to mobilize disillusioned voters.

The Susana Díaz precedent and the ghost of internal sorpasso

Comparison with Susana Díaz appears early. The former Andalusian president had all the machinery, the brand, and the support. She lost leadership to an unknown. The parallel is not exact, but the warning is the same: favorites also fall. In the PP, the open war between Feijóo's sector and Ayuso's is not new. What changes is the context: elections without a clear majority, a damaged candidate, and a tight calendar.

The economy adds pressure. Some place the debacle in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025. Others see contradictory signals: civil servants and pensioners receiving extras, freelancers invoicing under the table, European subsidies distributed among allies. The perception of crisis is not uniform. And in that limbo, the PP plays its immediate future.

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The rumor, for now, is just that: a rumor. But it served a purpose. It laid bare Feijóo's fragility and Ayuso's long shadow. With these materials, the PP's basket looks fragile. And no one rules out that the next move will be written in Madrid.