Rentals extended two years and evictions banned until 2030

Rentals extended two years and evictions frozen until 2030

Four years without evictions and two more years of contract. The housing decree approved this Tuesday in the Consejo de Ministros —already dubbed the Maricarmen decree— changes three market rules in one fell swoop: it bans evictions until 2030, regulates seasonal and room rentals, and extends for two years current contracts ending before 31 de diciembre de 2028. Negotiations between the government parties dragged on until the morning and forced the session to start an hour later. The Executive has requested an extraordinary plenary session this Friday in the Congreso to ratify the agreement.

The most immediate effect, according to calculations circulating among critics of the decree, is not the one discussed in the media, but the one appearing on real estate portals: the number of flats for sale would have doubled in a single day.

Who is affected by the rental extension: only large landlords?

No. And that's the catch, according to critics of the decree: the extension has no wealth threshold, and the owner of one flat and the fund with three thousand are equally extended. Neither the agreed text nor the eviction ban distinguishes by number of properties. Junts had been calling for "protection for small landlords", which in practice means an exception or a separate regime for those with fewer than X homes. Sumar has vetoed it, so for now everyone in the same boat.

For those critics, the consequence is arithmetic: if the tenant wants to stay, they stay, even if the owner has a daughter who needs the flat or a mortgage to pay.

Non-payment is no longer the tenant's risk but the landlord's

With evictions blocked until 2030, four years of unpaid rent cease to be a threat for those who don't pay and become a full cost for those who rent out. IBI (property tax), community fees, special assessments and mortgage payments remain the owner's responsibility.

The extension, moreover, is mandatory, not optional, according to critics. It's the most repeated detail: the contract is stretched two years by the tenant's will, not by agreement between the parties.

Cap on number of homes per owner: the proposal that fails to convince

Against the decree, the most repeated criticism does not dispute the diagnosis —there is an access problem— but the tool. One of the alternatives proposed involves fiscally disincentivising the accumulation of housing and limiting how many properties an individual can own, with an extra tax burden destined for public housing. Another calls for the State to leave the market: not buy, not guarantee, not subsidise demand, and not give away public land to funds under the excuse of affordable housing.

The counterargument is that a cap per individual or legal entity becomes a factory of front men —a fund spreads its flats among shell companies— and that this structural extra cost ends up being paid by the tenant. Those defending that State exit also argue that every euro of demand-side aid is passed on to the price.

100.000 new residents per month and the spectre of shanty towns

None of the measures addresses, according to those critics, the other side of the equation. With at least 100.000 people aspiring to reside in Spain each month —according to the figure they handle—, freezing supply does not reduce demand: it shifts it to the black market, to room subletting and to substandard housing. Hence the prediction circulating most insistently, that of shanty towns, which is already emerging in isolated pockets of large cities.

On that scenario, precision is advisable: it is projected with data prior to the decree. The legislative novelty does not refute it.

What could happen when the Congreso votes on Friday

The foreseeable outcome, if the plenary ratifies the text without changes, is a market with fewer evictions and fewer new contracts: withdrawn supply, owners converting rentals into sales or seasonal rentals, and a growing pool of tenants who cannot find anything with a long-term contract. It may not happen. But the indicator to watch is not the number of evictions: it's how many flats disappear from the stable rental market.