Putin's envoy predicts when EU fuel reserves will run out
Putin's envoy predicts EU fuel reserves will run out on April 11. Reality or propaganda? An analysis of the reserves and the reactions.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Russia puts a date on the EU's energy collapse: April 11 or a bluff?
Pilingui's special envoy, Kiril Dmitriev, has issued a prophecy that has set off every alarm: the last fuel shipments from the Strait of Hormuz will reach the EU on April 11. From then on, according to his forecast, Europe's strategic reserves will be depleted. The date is no accident: it's a Saturday, when "EU bureaucrats" are not overseeing things. Reality or psychological warfare? The debate among experts and citizens has only just begun.
The Hormuz blockade and Europe's dependence
Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US-Israeli aggression. Around 20% of the world's oil passes through this route. Europe, which had already reduced its dependence on Russian gas, remains vulnerable to imports from the Middle East. Crude oil and refined products (diesel, kerosene) are the hardest hit. Some analysts point out that even if alternative sources exist, global competition for cargoes will intensify.
Reserves: how long can we hold out?
Spain claims to have strategic reserves for 90 days, according to an article in El País. However, not all reserves consist of refined products: diesel and kerosene are more vulnerable than petrol. Moreover, reserves do not prevent fuel prices from rising if demand outstrips supply. Other European countries have similar capacities, but the depletion of reserves will be neither simultaneous nor uniform.
The two sides of the debate: doom-mongers vs. sceptics
On one side are those who argue the shortage will be real: there will be no fuel at any price, and the reserves will not be enough. On the other, those who believe there will be fuel but at prohibitive prices, which will trigger a contraction in demand and a recession. A third group dismisses it all as Russian propaganda, recalling that previous forecasts never came true. Meanwhile, five EU countries (Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria) have called for an extraordinary tax on the profits of energy companies to cushion the impact on consumers.
The date of April 20 has also been circulating as a new deadline, fuelling scepticism. As the clock ticks towards April 11, the question dividing analysts and citizens is whether the Russian forecast is a self-fulfilling prophecy or an outright bluff. What is clear is that the EU, caught between sanctions on Russia and the closure of Hormuz, is sailing into turbulent waters. And the reserve hamster, as one commenter puts it, is already fat.
Related discussions in the forum
Pilingui's special envoy, Kiril Dmitriev, has issued a prophecy that has set off every alarm: the last fuel shipments from the Strait of Hormuz will reach the EU on April 11. From then on, according to his forecast, Europe's strategic reserves will be depleted. The date is no accident: it's a Saturday, when "EU bureaucrats" are not overseeing things. Reality or psychological warfare? The debate among experts and citizens has only just begun.
The Hormuz blockade and Europe's dependence
Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US-Israeli aggression. Around 20% of the world's oil passes through this route. Europe, which had already reduced its dependence on Russian gas, remains vulnerable to imports from the Middle East. Crude oil and refined products (diesel, kerosene) are the hardest hit. Some analysts point out that even if alternative sources exist, global competition for cargoes will intensify.
Reserves: how long can we hold out?
Spain claims to have strategic reserves for 90 days, according to an article in El País. However, not all reserves consist of refined products: diesel and kerosene are more vulnerable than petrol. Moreover, reserves do not prevent fuel prices from rising if demand outstrips supply. Other European countries have similar capacities, but the depletion of reserves will be neither simultaneous nor uniform.
The two sides of the debate: doom-mongers vs. sceptics
On one side are those who argue the shortage will be real: there will be no fuel at any price, and the reserves will not be enough. On the other, those who believe there will be fuel but at prohibitive prices, which will trigger a contraction in demand and a recession. A third group dismisses it all as Russian propaganda, recalling that previous forecasts never came true. Meanwhile, five EU countries (Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria) have called for an extraordinary tax on the profits of energy companies to cushion the impact on consumers.
The date of April 20 has also been circulating as a new deadline, fuelling scepticism. As the clock ticks towards April 11, the question dividing analysts and citizens is whether the Russian forecast is a self-fulfilling prophecy or an outright bluff. What is clear is that the EU, caught between sanctions on Russia and the closure of Hormuz, is sailing into turbulent waters. And the reserve hamster, as one commenter puts it, is already fat.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (42 replies).
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