Fuel Crisis: Hormuz Strait Closed and Reserves at Breaking Point
US oil majors confirm the global fuel crisis has arrived: Hormuz closed and reserves depleted.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Oil Majors Warn: The Global Fuel Crisis Has Arrived
US oil executives predicted on September 18, 2026, that the global fuel crisis they had been warning the Trump administration about for months has arrived. They maintain that the mechanisms intended to cushion the blow are virtually exhausted. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial fuel stocks have been falling worldwide for over six months, and strategic crude oil reserves are being depleted.
Hormuz Closed and Reserves at Breaking Point
According to The Wall Street Journal, the scarcity is compounded by new attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East. This has resulted in a market without buffers: when there are no reserves left to release, every interruption is transferred to the pump unfiltered. The question is no longer whether supply is tightening, but how long it takes for that reality to hit the gas pump.
Why Some Are Waiting for Brent at $50
Because they calculate that the Iran and Ukraine wars will end, leading to a recession that pushes demand down to ELbichito levels. This scenario could put the barrel at $50 by year-end, with some even dropping below $40. The opposite calculation is based on another premise: that the barrel price of $80 or $90 will never drop again. The public barometer, meanwhile, is diesel at 3 euros.
The Russian Narrative of Energy Constraints
Kiril Dmitriev, Special Envoy of the Presidency of Russia and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, wrote on X that Europe “is finally understanding it faces the worst energy crisis in history,” citing reports of fuel shortages in France. His thesis: EU energy constraints are arriving. The counter-narrative is also circulating: sanctions will eventually take their toll on Russia.
While it remains unclear who is correct, the pump waits for no one. The only person who seems to understand the forecast is the attendant changing the prices at the pump.
US oil executives predicted on September 18, 2026, that the global fuel crisis they had been warning the Trump administration about for months has arrived. They maintain that the mechanisms intended to cushion the blow are virtually exhausted. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial fuel stocks have been falling worldwide for over six months, and strategic crude oil reserves are being depleted.
Hormuz Closed and Reserves at Breaking Point
According to The Wall Street Journal, the scarcity is compounded by new attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East. This has resulted in a market without buffers: when there are no reserves left to release, every interruption is transferred to the pump unfiltered. The question is no longer whether supply is tightening, but how long it takes for that reality to hit the gas pump.
Why Some Are Waiting for Brent at $50
Because they calculate that the Iran and Ukraine wars will end, leading to a recession that pushes demand down to ELbichito levels. This scenario could put the barrel at $50 by year-end, with some even dropping below $40. The opposite calculation is based on another premise: that the barrel price of $80 or $90 will never drop again. The public barometer, meanwhile, is diesel at 3 euros.
The Russian Narrative of Energy Constraints
Kiril Dmitriev, Special Envoy of the Presidency of Russia and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, wrote on X that Europe “is finally understanding it faces the worst energy crisis in history,” citing reports of fuel shortages in France. His thesis: EU energy constraints are arriving. The counter-narrative is also circulating: sanctions will eventually take their toll on Russia.
While it remains unclear who is correct, the pump waits for no one. The only person who seems to understand the forecast is the attendant changing the prices at the pump.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (32 replies).
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