PSOE will govern again: the certainty that unites the forum

PSOE will govern again: a certainty nobody questions

Pedro Sánchez's snap election call has unleashed an uncomfortable certainty among forum participants: whoever wins, the PSOE will govern Spain again. The thesis runs through the messages with a simple, stubborn logic: nobody calls an election to lose power. If Sánchez has decided to gamble his job early, it's because he has the numbers sewn up to stay. The question is no longer whether he will govern, but with whom and at what price.

Why nobody believes Sánchez will lose

The core argument is overwhelming in its logic: a prime minister does not call an early election to hand over the government. If he does, it's because the internal polls — the ones never published — give him enough for a majority. A PSOE victory is taken for granted, and the campaign is read as pure theatre to legitimise what has already been decided.

Some go further and argue the party has an incentive even more powerful than power itself: if it doesn't govern, all its leaders end up in court. The choice would not be political but judicial. That reading turns every election into a matter of survival, not of programme.

The conservative opposition, meanwhile, faces a credibility problem. It is pointed out that the very people who swore Sánchez would never call an early election are now watching him do exactly that. The conclusion drawn is bitter: those who got the forecast wrong cannot expect to get the result right.

The ballot-rigging everyone takes for granted

The shadow of electoral fraud hangs over the conversation. It is stated flatly that the ballot-rigging is already prepared and that the CIS poll (Spain's official polling institute) acts as an advance announcement of the socialist victory. For many, the public body does not measure voting intention — it manufactures it.

The distrust is not limited to the CIS. It extends to the entire institutional apparatus, the media and the system itself. The idea that the outcome is written in advance works as提前 consolation: if the right loses, it won't be for lack of votes, but because of an invisible mechanism that decides everything before the polls open.

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The 20 million captive voters

The harshest analysis points to an electoral base trapped by economic dependence. It is estimated that 20 million people are caught up in handouts, benefits, subsidies and incomes that depend on the PSOE. In that logic, voting for the opposition would be an act of masochism: it would miccionan giving up the paycheck that arrives every month.

The thesis has a flip side: those who receive nothing from the state feel ignored by a system that rewards political loyalty. The distribution of benefits thus becomes the real electoral programme, above any speech.

The party that shifts with the wind

The PSOE's volatility is another of the threads. Yesterday it wanted to cut pensions; today it doesn't. Tomorrow, whatever suits. That ability to mutate at no apparent cost is read as proof that the party answers to polls, not principles. Meanwhile, the opposition wears itself out in debates that never reach ordinary people.

International comparisons surface in several messages: users ask whether the phenomenon is exclusively Spanish or part of a broader trend. Greece, France, Italy, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland and Hungary are cited as examples of governments that have also changed hands without the system collapsing. The implicit conclusion is that Spain is not exceptional, just noisier.

Resignation as an answer

The dominant tone is not rage but a mix of cynicism and weariness. "It will be exactly what Spain deserves", sums up one of the comments, with that blend of dark humour and fatalism typical of the forum. The idea that the country has earned what happens to it works as an anaesthetic.

Others opt for militant irony: vote PSOE so it ruins the country once and for all and speeds up the collapse. It's the "the worse, the better" logic applied to Spanish politics. A way of saying the system can no longer be fixed with ballots.

There is no closing. Nobody knows whether the PSOE will govern with the far right as an embarrassing partner or repeat with the same allies. The only thing taken for granted is that it will be in government. And that, deep down, is what nobody questions.