PSOE Hits Record Low: 25.4% and Risk of Losing 100 Seats

PSOE Drops to 25.4%, Polls Indicate Near Loss of 100 Seats

September 2026 finds the PSOE at the bottom of its own statistical series. Celeste Tel's poll for Onda Cero assigns it 25.4% of the vote, the lowest of the entire legislature in that company's history, and places it flirting with the loss of one hundred seats. A day earlier, the DYM Institute had painted an almost identical picture. Two polls, two methodologies, and the same message: the bleeding continues.

What's Fueling the Drop: Ceuta and Accumulated Weariness

There's a factor with a specific name reappearing in both reports: Ceuta. The issue continues to act as a drag on the socialists, with new polls showing them on a downward trajectory and at their legislative low. It's not the only open front, but it is what the press itself points to as the trigger for the latest downturn.

The harshest interpretation suggests the damage is already done and that a 25% vote share is insufficient punishment for what has accumulated. The more cautious view recalls that percentages don't directly translate to seats: provincial distribution and vote dispersion miccionan a drop in points may or may not result in a catastrophic loss of mandates.

Will There Be Elections? The Calendar No One Changes

The question permeates the entire discussion: but will there be elections? And here comes the argument that unsettles the most optimistic. They've been announcing the end of the legislature for two years, and the legislature doesn't end. Meanwhile, Pedro Sánchez is now the second-longest serving president in La Moncloa, surpassed only by Felipe González.

This fact forces a tempering of expectations. If the polls haven't brought down a government so far, it's worth asking how much real leverage they have. The hypothesis gaining traction among colder analyses is that of forgetting: any crisis, however serious it may seem today, eventually fades into the calendar.

The Arithmetic: From 80 Deputies to an Absolute Majority

Some set the threshold for socialist success at retaining more than 80 deputies. With that benchmark, losing a hundred seats still leaves the party standing. Others argue the opposite: that any figure above zero shows an electorate willing to vote PSOE no matter what, and that this is the real problem.

On the other side of the scale, the most repeated prediction suggests Sánchez will consolidate the left-wing vote and again come close to the PP, with the added possibility of an absolute majority for PP and Vox. The opposition, meanwhile, faces criticism that spares no one: it reaches the electorate without appeal and without a proposal.

The Sticking Point

The contradiction is simple and no one resolves it: polls have been predicting the end for two years, and the end doesn't arrive. Poll after poll, the PSOE declines, but there's no election call in sight. And without the ballot box, that 25.4% is a snapshot with no expiration date.