PP rejects censure motion, opts to wait for 2028

PP rejects censure motion, opts to wait for 2028

The People's Party (PP) has decided not to table a motion of no confidence against Pedro Sánchez, betting that the government's erosion will deliver La Moncloa in 2028. Trinc the party's executive committee meeting, this strategy came as a cold shower for those expecting more aggressive moves. "We will reach La Moncloa in a much cleaner way," PP sources claim, while part of the conservative electorate interprets this calm as an early surrender.

The paradox is that the PP renounces parliamentary offensive just as the government faces one of its most delicate moments. The fall of Cerdán, the Housing Law already being applied in Catalonia, and judicial fronts surrounding Madrid's president paint a scenario that, on paper, invited the opposition to strike. However, the PP has opted for a low profile. And that is where the problem begins.

Why the PP renounces the censure motion

The popular leadership argues that a motion of no confidence would be a tactical error. They state that Sánchez "has lost any connection with reality" and that forcing a vote without sufficient support would only strengthen the president. The calculation is cold: without the backing of Junts and the PNV, the motion is doomed to fail, and a parliamentary failure would wear down the PP more than the Government.

Some add another less confessional reason. Tabling a motion would force the PP to expose its program and submit itself to scrutiny by its own MPs, some of whom have been eyeing Vox warily for months. The current calm allows the party to stay united without needing to define a concrete course. It is the politics of waiting.

The problem is that this waiting has a cost. Every week without a parliamentary offensive reinforces the feeling that the PP lacks an alternative plan. And in politics, the absence of a plan is interpreted as the absence of a project.

Internal fragmentation the PP cannot control

At least three currents coexist within the PP that do not share the strategy. One, majority in the leadership, bets on letting Sánchez wear himself out alone. Another, more combative, believes elections must be forced as soon as possible. And a third, minority but noisy, flirts with the idea that the party must shift towards harder positions to stop the flight of votes to Vox.

Madrid's president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, has become the epicenter of these tensions. Her attacks on the PNV and Junts —with statements that hinder any future understanding— have been read by some sectors as a move to position herself ahead of a potential congress. The hypothesis of an internal conspiracy to oust the PP leader circulates persistently, although no one has confirmed it.

The calculation is simple: if the PP does not reach La Moncloa in 2028, the party will have to look for a replacement. And replacements are not improvised.

Government erosion the PP fails to capitalize on

Sánchez accumulates open fronts. According to defenders, the Housing Law is starting to yield results in Catalonia. Judicial proceedings affecting the environment of Madrid's president are advancing. On paper, there is ample material for a combative opposition.

But the PP does not capitalize on it. And here lies the paradox many analysts point out: the party that should gather discontent locks itself in. The feeling that "things are not going well" has spread among mid-level cadres, some of whom are beginning to ask quietly whether the PP leader is the right person for the moment.

The official response is yes, that the strategy is correct and time will prove them right. The unofficial response is that no one wants to be the first to say it aloud.

The Vox factor and parliamentary arithmetic

The D'Hondt method and the Spanish electoral system complicate any alternative majority. Vox subtracts votes from the PP in constituencies where the right needs to add up, while simultaneously blocking any agreement with the PNV and Junts. It is the vicious circle the PP has failed to break.

Some analyses suggest the PP should secretly pact with Vox and publicly with nationalists. Others believe this double game is impossible to sustain. The truth is that, at the time of this discussion, the PP has no clear partners for an investiture, and that conditions its entire strategy.

Meanwhile, Sánchez remains in La Moncloa. And the PP keeps waiting.

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With these elements, the question is not whether the PP will reach La Moncloa in 2028. The question is whether the same leader will still be the candidate when that moment arrives.