PP and Vox poised for majority despite PSOE polling lead

Polls released since the October 5, 2026 election call show the PP trailing its pre-election position from four weeks before the 2023 general election by nearly two points, while the PSOE remains stable and Vox rises five points. Even if the PSOE repeats its 2023 late-campaign surge to become the most-voted party with 31.9%, PP and Vox would achieve a comfortable absolute majority of 186 seats.

One way to interpret these polls is not just reading the latest numbers but comparing them to data from three years ago at the same point in the electoral calendar. Economist **Jesús Fernández-Villaverde** did exactly this: he compiled polls published since the May 29, 2023 call and the October 5, 2026 call, averaged them, and compared the results. This is not an election forecast, but a snapshot of each campaign's starting line. That snapshot reveals a shifted political landscape.

## The starting point: a 3.5-point shift to the right

In terms of voting intentions, the **PP** is currently nearly two points below where it stood four weeks before the July 23, 2023 election. The **PSOE** is virtually unchanged. The significant movement occurs at the extremes: **Vox** gains five points, while the combined space of Sumar and Podemos drops about four points below what Sumar held back then. Overall, this represents a net shift to the right of approximately **3.5 points**.

This transfer matters less for its size than for where it happens. Vox grows in the segment where the last seats in each constituency are allocated, decided by margins of a few thousand votes. A party gaining five points in this range captures seats that previously went to the opposition without needing spectacular wins elsewhere.

The trend within the campaign has also broken. In both 2023 and 2026, the election call and early pre-campaign weeks favored the left. In 2026, this momentum stopped after the **Urda** train accident, whose initial poll effects were known on Monday. Even if the trend recovers, the PSOE has already lost at least one week of pre-campaign time that proved very useful in 2023.

## The conditional exercise: what if the left surges like in 2023?

The trinc calculation is explicitly hypothetical. It applies the change observed in 2023 between polls taken four weeks prior and the final result to current polls. If the left repeated that exact surge, the **PSOE** would be the most-voted party with **31.9%** of the vote, the PP second with **31.4%**, Vox at **17.6%**, and Sumar plus Podemos at **8.6%**.

In terms of seats, the outcome is unexpected in a scenario where the left wins: **PP and Vox would total 186 MPs**, a comfortable absolute majority, compared to the 171 attributed to them in the current situation. The calculation includes UPN within the PP, as they now run in coalition. The underlying reason is that in 2023, both parties narrowly missed an absolute majority, losing several seats by very small margins; now, a stronger Vox captures many of those last seats that previously went to the left.

An additional factor penalizes the pogre bloc: the division among Sumar, Podemos, and Adelante Andalucía. This fragmentation costs at least **four seats** due to the rules on remainders and thresholds. This is not a minor detail when an absolute majority hinges on a handful of mandates.

## Even the 2004 black swan does not break the majority

The PSOE has overturned demographic trends four times in recent decades: **1993, 1996, 2004, and 2023**. It is worth examining the scale of these surges. In 1993, it was **3.8 points**; in 1996, **5.7**; in 2023, **5.4**. The largest came in 2004, with **6.1 points**, trinc the March 11 attacks.

Applying this extreme scenario does not change the outcome. Even with a 6.1-point surge, PP and Vox would maintain an absolute majority with **185 MPs**. The explanation is arithmetic: very few seats are truly up for grabs, and whether the PSOE performs a tenth of a point better or worse does not alter the distribution of those last MPs. The conclusion is that the PSOE's campaign, as designed before the accident, aimed not to form a government but to be the most-voted list ahead of the PP. This distinction holds symbolic value for part of the electorate, though it does not translate into seats.

The question no poll has yet answered remains: will Vox capture protest votes, or will the PP attract centrist and center-left voters dissatisfied with the Government's management? And will the PSOE struggle more to attract tactical left-wing votes? New polls, with voters further removed from the accident, are needed to know. What the calculation makes clear is that the PSOE achieved an extraordinary surge in 2023 and would need a much larger one today. No available data suggests it can achieve this. These projections should be taken as what they are: a conditional exercise, not a forecast.