Pascal's Wager: Is Belief Rational Given Infinite Time?
Economic analysis of Pascal's Wager: weighing infinite rewards against 13.8 billion years of non-existence and 10^67 more.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The Economic Dilemma of Eternity: Is Belief Rational?
Imagine 13.8 billion years of non-existence before birth, trinc by an 80-year life, and then non-existence for a period equivalent to that number multiplied by a 1 trinc by 67 zeros. This is the premise dividing those who view religion as an infinite life insurance policy from those willing to bear the opportunity cost of a dogma-free life.
While seemingly philosophical, this debate has a clear economic reading: if the expected value of faith is infinite (eternal heaven) and the cost of disbelief is infinite (eternal hell), rationality demands belief—provided the probability of God’s existence exceeds zero. However, issues of intertemporal discounting and uncertainty regarding which deity is correct arise here.
Pascal’s Infinite Utility
Pascal’s classic argument takes on new dimensions when considering the figure of 10^67 years. If Paradise promises eternal happiness, any positive discount rate reduces it to a finite present value only if the horizon is finite. But with an infinite horizon, the present value remains infinite for any discount rate less than one. Some analysts describe religion as a "benzodiazepine" to avoid madness in the face of cosmic insignificance. Others argue atheism is the braver stance: accepting no reward after death and viewing life as a blink without transcendent meaning.
Discounting Problems and Competing Gods
If multiple religions offer contradictory promises, the probability of choosing correctly dilutes. Furthermore, if faith requires costs (time, money, sacrifices), the investment may not pay off when the subjective probability of the true god existing is low. The agnostic position, often criticized as hedging bets, attempts to minimize costs while keeping options open. Yet, economic analysis shows that in the presence of infinities, any positive probability generates an infinite expected value, rendering indifference irrational.
The debate also incorporates the simulation hypothesis: if we live in a computer, the "programmer God" might be external, and death merely a logout. This version reduces the problem to a dimensional shift rather than a matter of faith.
The unanswered question is whether the human mind can handle concepts of infinity in decisions with eternal consequences. Time, like gold, seems to lose value as the horizon extends to infinity. Meanwhile, forum discussions continue, and as one comment noted, Spain's Tax Agency (Agencia Tributaria) might be the entity that truly knows eternity.
Related Forum Discussions
Imagine 13.8 billion years of non-existence before birth, trinc by an 80-year life, and then non-existence for a period equivalent to that number multiplied by a 1 trinc by 67 zeros. This is the premise dividing those who view religion as an infinite life insurance policy from those willing to bear the opportunity cost of a dogma-free life.
While seemingly philosophical, this debate has a clear economic reading: if the expected value of faith is infinite (eternal heaven) and the cost of disbelief is infinite (eternal hell), rationality demands belief—provided the probability of God’s existence exceeds zero. However, issues of intertemporal discounting and uncertainty regarding which deity is correct arise here.
Pascal’s Infinite Utility
Pascal’s classic argument takes on new dimensions when considering the figure of 10^67 years. If Paradise promises eternal happiness, any positive discount rate reduces it to a finite present value only if the horizon is finite. But with an infinite horizon, the present value remains infinite for any discount rate less than one. Some analysts describe religion as a "benzodiazepine" to avoid madness in the face of cosmic insignificance. Others argue atheism is the braver stance: accepting no reward after death and viewing life as a blink without transcendent meaning.
Discounting Problems and Competing Gods
If multiple religions offer contradictory promises, the probability of choosing correctly dilutes. Furthermore, if faith requires costs (time, money, sacrifices), the investment may not pay off when the subjective probability of the true god existing is low. The agnostic position, often criticized as hedging bets, attempts to minimize costs while keeping options open. Yet, economic analysis shows that in the presence of infinities, any positive probability generates an infinite expected value, rendering indifference irrational.
The debate also incorporates the simulation hypothesis: if we live in a computer, the "programmer God" might be external, and death merely a logout. This version reduces the problem to a dimensional shift rather than a matter of faith.
The unanswered question is whether the human mind can handle concepts of infinity in decisions with eternal consequences. Time, like gold, seems to lose value as the horizon extends to infinity. Meanwhile, forum discussions continue, and as one comment noted, Spain's Tax Agency (Agencia Tributaria) might be the entity that truly knows eternity.
Related Forum Discussions
- The red thread. Poor fakers keep out. · 12884 replies
- No matter how much you mess around on TV, radio, and social media, the democratically elected government will not be overthrown. · 105 replies
- Jesús Cintora talking nonsense about Feijóo and Marcial Dorado's photo from an hour ago. It's not a joke. · 25 replies
- Brootal, Japanese documentary on the rural Chinese papaya bubble · 14 replies
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (137 replies).
More summaries
-
Spain Leads Europe in Immigration with 750,000 Net Annual Entries
Spain's net immigration triples European followers, reaching 750,000 annually and 1.2 million regularizations this year, with questions about counting methods.
-
Ceuta Residents Demand Red Cross Expulsion Over Funding
Ceuta residents target the Red Cross's €645 million in public subsidies over three years, demanding its expulsion from Spanish territory.
-
Spain's rental decrees struck down: 'the damage is already done'
A forum user claims rental supply has fallen 61% since 2020 and prices have risen 40%. The decrees have been struck down, but the damage is already done, according to the...
-
ISIS Threatens Spain with Spanish-Language Propaganda Push
The terrorist group is spreading videos and audio recordings in Spanish aimed at Spain and Latin America, according to a report by Europa.com. Here is what it means.
-
After the Adamuz crash, Spain's rail travel hits record highs in summer 2026
High-speed ridership fell 21% in the first quarter of 2026 after the Adamuz crash, but in August it topped 3.68 million passengers. Fear only lasts a few months.
-
Spain's public broadcaster RTVE threatens citizen exercising his right to free speech
A user criticized TVE's programming on X and received a legal notice from the corporation. The episode reopens the debate over the limits of criticism of public media in Spain.