Orriols, the kingmaker in Catalonia's government race
Electoral projections put Aliança Catalana in a real position to lead the Generalitat, although the right-wing bloc adds up enough to veto but not to…
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Orriols, the kingmaker in Catalonia's government race
The stubborn electoral arithmetic paints a scenario that not even the most optimistic in Aliança Catalana would have dreamed of a year ago. According to calculations circulating among analysts, the combined total of AC, Junts, PP and Vox would reach between 68 and 72 seats, brushing the absolute majority of the Parliament (68 seats). The left, with PSOE, ERC and the comunes, would be left with 60-63. The result: an investiture majority impossible for Salvador Illa and a right-wing and pro-independence bloc that can veto but not choose a president.
The 'no' bloc can, the 'yes' bloc falls short
The paradox is that the forces that agree on rejecting Illa add up comfortably, but no coalition reaches the 68 seats needed to invest a candidate. Junts and PP are incompatible; Vox and Aliança Catalana, though converging on identity issues, diverge on economic and territorial matters. The result is the announced ungovernability: either elections are repeated or a consensus figure emerges who does not exist today.
The Orriols factor and the 'grandchildren law' effect
Some forecasts, however, suggest that the regularization of migrants and the 'grandchildren law' (a Spanish law granting citizenship to descendants of Spanish emigrants) could expand the electorate and bring Orriols closer to an absolute majority. The mayor of Ripoll, with her firm discourse against uncontrolled immigration and her explicit alignment with Israel, has broken the mold of classic independence politics. She attracts voters disillusioned with Junts and Vox, but also generates rejection in sectors that see in her an illiberal drift.
The unsettling fact: even though the right-wing bloc adds up enough to block, the possibility of Orriols presiding over the Govern is not a fantasy. If elections were held after the demographic changes, the board could tilt enough. But for now, Catalonia is heading toward a new term in caretaker mode or a bloc scenario that demands impossible deals.
The stubborn electoral arithmetic paints a scenario that not even the most optimistic in Aliança Catalana would have dreamed of a year ago. According to calculations circulating among analysts, the combined total of AC, Junts, PP and Vox would reach between 68 and 72 seats, brushing the absolute majority of the Parliament (68 seats). The left, with PSOE, ERC and the comunes, would be left with 60-63. The result: an investiture majority impossible for Salvador Illa and a right-wing and pro-independence bloc that can veto but not choose a president.
The 'no' bloc can, the 'yes' bloc falls short
The paradox is that the forces that agree on rejecting Illa add up comfortably, but no coalition reaches the 68 seats needed to invest a candidate. Junts and PP are incompatible; Vox and Aliança Catalana, though converging on identity issues, diverge on economic and territorial matters. The result is the announced ungovernability: either elections are repeated or a consensus figure emerges who does not exist today.
The Orriols factor and the 'grandchildren law' effect
Some forecasts, however, suggest that the regularization of migrants and the 'grandchildren law' (a Spanish law granting citizenship to descendants of Spanish emigrants) could expand the electorate and bring Orriols closer to an absolute majority. The mayor of Ripoll, with her firm discourse against uncontrolled immigration and her explicit alignment with Israel, has broken the mold of classic independence politics. She attracts voters disillusioned with Junts and Vox, but also generates rejection in sectors that see in her an illiberal drift.
The unsettling fact: even though the right-wing bloc adds up enough to block, the possibility of Orriols presiding over the Govern is not a fantasy. If elections were held after the demographic changes, the board could tilt enough. But for now, Catalonia is heading toward a new term in caretaker mode or a bloc scenario that demands impossible deals.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (23 replies).
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