Oil hits $112: Europe faces energy crisis

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Oil at $112: The countdown for Europe

Brent crude closed at $112, a level not seen with such persistence since 2014. But the context is radically different: a weaker dollar, double-digit inflation in services and food, and EU interest rates at 4%. On June 30, the Spanish government will end fuel subsidies, potentially pushing gasoline prices above €2 per liter. Recent calculations suggest European strategic reserves barely reach August. Meanwhile, most media remain silent. Some analysts argue the real problem isn't the price itself, but the lack of coordinated response and suspicions that the situation is orchestrated.

What has changed since 2008?

In 2008, oil reached $140, but the global economy still had room to maneuver. Today, underlying inflation is entrenched, public debt is a burden, and households already feel the pressure of high interest rates. Those defending the "this peine before and nothing collapsed" thesis recall that between 2011 and 2014, Brent stayed above $100 for four years without systemic collapse. However, back then inflation was low and interest rates were at historic lows. Now, every euro increase in crude oil translates into higher grocery bills with unprecedented estimulante ilegal.

June 30: The pain threshold

The Spanish government confirmed that diesel and gasoline subsidies will end on June 30. With oil at $112, fuel prices could exceed €2 per liter at many stations. Some observers warn of potential traffic paralysis in cities and highways, while others see it as a mere formality that won't change consumption habits. The reality is that road transport, the country's logistical backbone, faces cost increases that will inevitably be passed on to all goods.

Contradiction: Manipulation or reality?

Opinions are split between those who believe oil prices reflect a strategy by major producers and those who see them as a sign of an exhausted energy model. The former argue that global reserves haven't significantly decreased and that the rise is artificial, aimed at forcing market restructuring. The latter maintain that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, mismanaged energy transition, and financial speculation create a perfect storm with inevitable, prolonged effects.

Reserves and resilience: Europe's margin

International Energy Agency data indicates that EU strategic reserves, including current stocks and planned imports, might cover demand until late August. This provides about three months of relief, but no structural solution is in sight during this period. Countries most dependent on diesel for heating and transport will feel the impact first, while those with greater renewable peine and electric fleets may weather the storm better. However, electrifying heavy transport remains a short-term chimera, as evidenced by the diesel truck fleet in industrial parks like Mercamadrid.

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