Oil doomsayers run out of arguments as prices fall

The end of oil isn't coming: the doomsayers are running on empty

What happens when predictions of an energy collapse fail to materialize? While gasoline prices fall again and artificial intelligence accelerates the technological transition, the movement that has spent decades announcing the exhaustion of crude oil faces a problem: its forecasts were left by the wayside. Authors like Antonio Turiel and Santiago Niño Becerra, classics of energy doom-mongering, are watching their books fail to withstand reality.

The collapse narrative is losing steam

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz should have been the perfect setting for the end of oil. The scares came and went, the barrel price rose and then fell. Those who bought into the thesis of the Russian empire's last gasp are finding that the European Union is accelerating toward energy self-sufficiency and the electric car keeps making inroads. Even the everyday figure: 100 euros barely fills the tank, but it fills it. And it hurts less every time.

Geopolitics still plays a role

It's not all bad news for the doom-mongers. Dependence on fossil fuels remains structural, and the books by Turiel and Niño Becerra contain warnings that, while exaggerated, serve as a vaccine against complacency. The difference is that the optimistic argument now has a new ally: artificial intelligence, capable of optimizing everything from power grids to the discovery of new materials for storage.

Meanwhile, the doomsayers repeat the mantra of the lost youth. The problem is that the tank fills up, gasoline prices fall, and the world keeps turning. Such are the ironies of collapse.