October starts with summer heat as climate debate heats up in Spain

October starts with summer heat as climate debate heats up in Spain

The first day of October dawns with temperatures worthy of August and a question sweeping across Spain: is this normal? Far from being settled, the debate has become a battleground where the traditional Indian summer, climate change, conspiracy theories and even apocalyptic predictions all coexist. According to one participant, it barely rained from mid to late September, while another points out that the water in the Cantabrian Sea is still at 22 degrees and that half of Spain is bathing in the Mediterranean as if the calendar didn't exist.

What's going on with the weather in October?

The scene repeats itself in every conversation: someone brings up the weather and, within two sentences, the exchange turns into trench warfare. Some dismiss it as the classic St. Michael's Indian summer, the one that arrives every year around this time and that some consider as predictable as the Christmas lottery. Others, however, see the persistence of the heat as an anomaly that AEMET (Spain's meteorological agency) insists on labelling as climate change. The discussion is no trivial matter: according to one participant, hardly any water fell in many areas during the second half of September, and with reservoirs still depleted, that is not good news.

The most frequently cited figure is the temperature of the Cantabrian Sea, which, according to one participant, remains at 22 degrees. It is no minor detail: it allows for out-of-season swims and fuels the feeling that autumn has taken a gap year. The Mediterranean is no different, and some joke that the country has become a permanent beach destination until the first serious storm arrives.

From St. Michael's summer to climate change: the opposing views

The camp most sceptical of the official narrative argues that this is nothing more than the usual Indian summer, a recurring phenomenon now being sold as something new. "Hundreds of times," someone sums up sarcastically, implying that AEMET has reinvented the wheel. Against this position, the climate explanation gains ground among those who recall that September was not always this dry and that temperature records keep piling up year after year.

In between, the most outlandish theories appear. Some blame fumigations, radiation or vaccines for having altered body temperature. Others point directly at Pilingui for keeping the heating too high. And there is no shortage of those hoping for a gota fría, a DANA (a high-altitude isolated depression) or a storm that will sweep everything away, because the apocalypse always sells better than a sunny afternoon.

The heating business and the political calendar

While some argue whether this is normal or not, others have already found the practical side: if the good weather keeps up, they save on heating. The running joke is that climate change, seen this way, has its perks. But reality is stubborn: a warm autumn delays the switching on of boilers, reduces energy consumption and, in passing, eases the bills of millions of households. No small thing in a context of volatile prices.

Politics also creeps into the conversation. Some attribute the heat to government decisions, corruption or anything that allows them to poke their adversary in the eye. The controversy is served, but thermometers know nothing about ideologies.

What is expected in the coming days?

The most repeated forecasts point to a polar front that could sweep down at the end of the week, bringing a sharp temperature drop and intense storms. Uncertainty is at its peak: some speak of torrential rain, others of a simple cool-down. What seems clear is that the Indian summer has an expiry date, although nobody dares to set the hour.

Meanwhile, the advice is the usual one: enjoy the heat while it lasts, keep an umbrella handy and don't trust anyone promising the end of the world in an afternoon nap. The climate carries on its course, and we keep arguing about whether this is normal or the prelude to something worse.