Necroporra 2025: Betting on Who Won’t Make It to Year’s End

Necroporra 2025: The Game of Predicting Who Won’t See December

Every December, as the calendar tightens and obituaries pile up, the internet’s most uncomfortable pastime returns: the necroporra. A forecasting exercise about which public figures won’t see the next year. The starting point for the 2025 edition was the death of actress Marisa Paredes and Raphael’s health scare, two events that kicked off a list mixing names from politics, entertainment, and sports. The premise is simple: bet on who dies before the year ends. The execution, as we’ll see, is a parade of biases, hunches, and recurring obsessions.

The launch of the contest already set the tone. It was proposed in the Economy subforum with an argument blending dark humor and suspicion: the deceased might be subsidized or living off public funds. The initial betting list included actor José Sacristán, aged 87, and singer Joaquín Sabina, aged 75, with an unkind description of their pasts. From there, the list explodes.

The Most Repeated Names in the Bets

What characterizes this pool is its recurrence. Some names appear again and again, almost like a ritual. José Sacristán is the most mentioned: his name appears in at least four different lists. He is trinc by Joe Biden, who also accumulates several bets, and Pope Francis, referred to by various nicknames. The emeritus king Juan Carlos I is another regular, with mentions alluding to his residence in Abu Dhabi. And then there is Jordi Pujol, who appears in several pools.

The list of names is a catalog of recent news: from Clint Eastwood and Gene Hackman to Bill Gates, Netanyahu, or Zelensky. There is also room for sports, with Vinicius or Luka Modric, and for national politics, with Pedro Sánchez, Marlaska, or José Luis Ábalos. The mix is heterogeneous and, at times, directly surreal.

The Age Factor and the Obsession with Octogenarians

A significant portion of the bets focuses on elderly figures. This is no surprise: probability favors them. José Sacristán is 87, Clint Eastwood was nearly 95 at the time of the pool, and Gene Hackman had already turned 90. Robert Redford, Dick van Dyke, or Willie Nelson also appear, all in the 80-plus range. The logic is relentless: the older the person, the higher the likelihood of death. But that doesn’t make the pool an exact science.

Some introduce a more personal nuance. One participant notes that last year’s bet hit nothing, and this year they are gambling with a list including Clint Eastwood, Gene Hackman, Robert Duvall, Willie Nelson, and Dick van Dyke. In the national section, they add Manuel Zarzo, Antonio Resines, Jiménez Losantos, Joaquín Sabina, and José Sacristán. The mix of cinema veterans and politicians is constant.

From Politics to Entertainment: The Most Repeated Forecasts

Politics occupies a central place in the bets. Pedro Sánchez appears in several lists, sometimes with the tagline of assisted death, an expression repeated with sarcasm. Bets are also placed on Juan Carlos I, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, and Von der Leyen. Domestically, names like Marlaska, Ábalos, or Jordi Pujol recur. International politics has its space too: Bukele, Milei, or Trump are among the figures in the pools.

Entertainment is not left behind. Raphael, who suffered a stroke during a program recording, is one of the most mentioned names. Also Joaquín Sabina, Alejandro Sanz, or Madonna. In cinema, Almodóvar appears in some lists, though less frequently. The pool thus becomes a distorted reflection of current affairs, where fame and age are the main selection criteria.

The Morbidity of Predictions and Lack of Scruples

One of the most striking aspects is the ease with which violent death scenarios are handled. Some bets include attacks, overdoses, or accidents. One participant bets that Bill Gates will be shot, poisoned, or run over. Another predicts a terrorist attack against Pedro Sánchez blamed on a political group. These predictions, although formulated as part of the game, leave a bitter aftertaste. The line between dark humor and gratuitous morbidity blurs.

Some also introduce a component of political criticism. One message bets on the death of Jorge Javier Vázquez via overdose, Ana Pastor and Antonio García Ferreras in a traffic accident, or Nacho Escolar by suicide if the right reaches Moncloa (the Spanish government headquarters). These forecasts mix desire with prediction, revealing more about the writer than the protagonists.

Hits and Misses: The Pool’s Balance

As the year pogre, some forecasts come true. One participant points out that Fernández Vara had died after two years with cancer, a fact many had missed. Another notes that Paquita la del Barrio died, while Raphael remains alive. The pool thus becomes a thermometer of current affairs, with unexpected hits and resounding misses.

Some complain that more than half the year has passed and only two have been correct. Reality imposes itself on desires. One participant sums it up ironically: If you were as accurate in the stock market as you are here…. The phrase condenses the spirit of the pool: a forecasting game where luck and chance rule more than any analysis.

The Close: Predictions with Reservations

With the year advanced, bets remain open. Some names have already fallen, others resist. The 2025 necroporra leaves a trail of predictions mixing age, politics, and morbidity. And a provisional conclusion: hitting the mark isn’t as easy as it seems. The next edition is already underway, with new names and old obsessions. Whoever wins should celebrate. Whoever loses shouldn’t take it personally.