Margallo warns next crisis will expose hidden cost of Spain's policies

Margallo warns: the next crisis will expose the hidden cost of current policies

Former minister José Manuel García-Margallo has issued a warning that has ignited the economic debate: "If a crisis comes, we're going to be stunned by what has been let in here." The remark, made in the context of defending the 2030 Agenda, points directly at the foundations of Spain's social and migration model.

Margallo, known for his conservative profile, likened the 2030 Agenda to the gospel and lashed out at its critics. However, the point that has resonated most in the subsequent analysis is not his defence of the agenda, but his forecast about a future crisis. According to some interpretations, the former minister was referring to the roughly three million foreigners who, having arrived during the boom years, would find themselves without housing, without savings and without a family network if the economy collapses. The picture is stark: a vulnerable group left unprotected, putting even more strain on public finances.

The cost of unfinished integration

Critics of the warning dismiss it as alarmism or an attempt to justify future spending cuts. But the data on the stock of foreign population and access to housing suggest the risk cannot be ruled out. The large number of migrants in precarious jobs with little family safety net turns any economic downturn into a social time bomb.

What would happen in the next recession?

Supporters of Margallo's thesis argue that the next crisis —inevitable in the medium term— will put Spain's integration model to the test. Unlike previous crises, when emigration acted as a safety valve, the accumulated positive migration balance could now multiply social spending needs.

The question hanging in the air: is the system prepared to support three million people without resources? The answer, most likely, we will find out when the storm arrives.