Luis Valdés: future wars will be fought to keep us hooked on oil
Economist Luis Valdés argues that future wars will not be over oil itself, but over preventing the world from abandoning it. A thesis that divides opinion.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Luis Valdés: from wars over oil to wars to keep us from leaving it behind
Economist Luis Valdés has put forward an uncomfortable thesis: the geopolitical order may be shifting towards a scenario in which wars are no longer fought to secure oil supplies, but to stop economies from abandoning it. The claim, steeped in scepticism about the energy transition, strikes a raw nerve at a time when the climate agenda is advancing at a forced pace.
The idea rests on a simple premise: oil is not just energy, it is power. The powers whose influence rests on controlling hydrocarbons would see their position threatened if the world moved en masse towards renewable sources. In that context, Valdés suggests that armed conflicts could be redirected towards sabotaging or delaying that transition.
The thesis is not new — some analysts already describe the war in Ukraine as an energy conflict in disguise — but Valdés takes it a step further: the goal would be to keep a market captive that wants to break free. A provocation which, judging by the reactions, divides those who see it as a conspiratorial dystopia from those who consider it a realistic warning. The debate remains open.
Economist Luis Valdés has put forward an uncomfortable thesis: the geopolitical order may be shifting towards a scenario in which wars are no longer fought to secure oil supplies, but to stop economies from abandoning it. The claim, steeped in scepticism about the energy transition, strikes a raw nerve at a time when the climate agenda is advancing at a forced pace.
The idea rests on a simple premise: oil is not just energy, it is power. The powers whose influence rests on controlling hydrocarbons would see their position threatened if the world moved en masse towards renewable sources. In that context, Valdés suggests that armed conflicts could be redirected towards sabotaging or delaying that transition.
The thesis is not new — some analysts already describe the war in Ukraine as an energy conflict in disguise — but Valdés takes it a step further: the goal would be to keep a market captive that wants to break free. A provocation which, judging by the reactions, divides those who see it as a conspiratorial dystopia from those who consider it a realistic warning. The debate remains open.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (14 replies).
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