Long-Term Investment Guide: From Fundamental Analysis to Uranium

Long-Term Investment Guide: From Fundamental Analysis to Uranium

A self-described novice investor has consolidated all knowledge on medium- to long-term investing in a single resource. The resulting manual begins with an uncomfortable assertion: statistically, the most profitable asset is stocks, because a share is literally a piece of a company created to make money. Neither gold nor real estate outperform the stock market in the long run, the guide argues. From there, the text becomes a roadmap from fundamental analysis to broker selection, covering style choice and sales management.

What fundamental analysis is and where to start

For horizons of three years or more, the most reliable tool is fundamental analysis: comparing a company's accounting with its trading price. The initial bibliographic recommendation is How to Invest in the Stock Market from Scratch by Gregorio Hernández, with the caveat that it is biased toward the long term. As a video alternative, the channel by Alejandro Estebaranz is pointed out, but only older videos: since 2018, the content becomes superficial and simplified, according to the guide itself, because the author changed style to appeal to a broader audience.

The Investopedia dictionary appears as a reference resource, though entirely in English. The warning is clear: anyone wanting to learn seriously will have to make the leap to the Anglo-Saxon language, because Spanish speakers are very behind in financial culture.

The three styles: growth, value, and quality

The guide divides investors by fundamentals into three groups. Growth investors seek companies that grow significantly at reasonable prices and quality. Value investors pursue cheap companies with acceptable growth and quality. Quality investors focus on businesses with high entry barriers at reasonable prices and growth. All seek the same thing; only the priority changes.

The logic works in reverse if someone goes short: growth investors attack dying companies, value investors target expensive companies, and quality investors target business models with little solidity. The recommendation is to choose a single priority, although those who master the subject can pick from multiple flowers.

When to sell and when to rotate

A sale is decided by checking if the original thesis still holds. If you bought because it was cheap and it is no longer, the idea has expired. The same applies if you bought for growth and it no longer grows, or for quality and it has ceased to be a good company. The author himself admits that selling is his weakest point and that many people, when exiting, turn into technical analysts or speculators.

Rotations are another avenue: selling one company to almost immediately incorporate another much more attractive one. The only real brake is taxes if the sold company was profitable.

The broker and markets to trade in

Having a good broker account is basic because a large part of profitability depends on commissions and market access. The guide mentions Degiro as an example of operations in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, the UK, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Spain, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Poland, and Sweden, among others.

Uranium as an investment thesis

The final part presents a concrete thesis: uranium. The argument is that the sector was considered dead, investment in exploration and development ceased, prices fell for years, and even active mines had to shut down. Now demand rises due to life extensions for existing plants and new reactors. The proponent describes it as a train about to leave.

Accounting, biases, and the gurus' business

The educational section includes an academic path: a micro-degree in corporate accounting from UNED that can be completed in a year and covers ADE accounting subjects. For those preferring self-study, divulgation channels focused on value and dividends are cited, with tutorials on income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow.

Distrust of classic manuals is explicit. One of the most recommended books in the sector is described as bullshit literarily, with the addition that many people recommending it probably haven't read it. The proposed alternative involves books on cognitive biases, arguing that many gurus were just lucky at a specific moment and have spent the rest of their lives selling books and conferences.

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The manual concludes by acknowledging that the author no longer participates in the space where it was published: he has moved to other platforms and admits there are more knowledgeable people there. The guide remains what it is: a starting point with an expiration date and a final warning: analyzing companies well is slow, and beating indices is difficult.