Kissinger in 1994: expand NATO before Russia rises again

The forgotten document: Kissinger called for NATO expansion in 1994

What did Henry Kissinger write about NATO in 1994, and why has it come back into the spotlight? The answer lies in a Washington Post article that is circulating again as proof that the Alliance's expansion was no accident, but a deliberate decision. Amid the Atlantic alliance's identity crisis trinc the failure in Bosnia, Kissinger called for exactly the opposite of what the conventional wisdom of the time suggested: expand, and do it now.

The prescription: expand before Russia rises again

Kissinger's text opens with a harsh diagnosis: the Atlantic Alliance is suffering its worst crisis of unity since Suez. But the problem is not the structure, it is the absence of a common threat. His conclusion is direct: it is unwise to wait for an acute Russian threat to emerge. "It is not recommended to postpone the purchase of fire insurance until the house is actually on fire," he wrote. The phrase, whether prophetic or inflammatory depending on how you look at it, comes with an uncomfortable geopolitical reflection: "The only open question is whether America or Russia will play the role of Rome." And in that contest, Europe counts for nothing without the United States, which entered war twice in the twentieth century to prevent the domination of Eurasia by a hegemonic power.

The echo in today's war

The document is now invoked as the seed of the current confrontation: those who circulate it argue that Kissinger designed NATO's expansion and, therefore, the dynamic that led to the clash with Russia. The opposing reading is just as blunt: there is no NATO-Russia war, and if there were one, Russia would not last a month. In between lies a text from three decades ago that is still read as a statement of intent. Kissinger urged buying insurance before the house caught fire. Thirty years later, the house is still burning and the insurance is still being reinterpreted.