Junts still says no, leaving Spain's government without a way out

Junts holds firm on no, leaving Sánchez without the last piece

The contradiction is textbook: the text the government needs to pass depends on a party that votes no and that, according to the argument doing the rounds, has more to gain if the no holds until the end. Junts would maintain its rejection of the sweeping decree as of 1 October, according to ABC. With that no, the last piece holding up the parliamentary arithmetic disappears, and no alternative majority is in sight. What was at stake was a vote. What is really at stake is the calendar.

Why Junts's no is no ordinary vote

In the conversation, the text is summed up as a silly piece of text, and the rejection as something obvious. Junts has said no and has stuck to it, leaving the government without its most awkward and, at the same time, most necessary partner. The immediate consequence is not a parliamentary defeat: it is a legislature running out of air. Some call it theatre. Theatre burns too.

Junts, ERC and the paradox of needing elections now

The sharpest argument going around points to an uncomfortable paradox for the two pro-independence parties: both need elections as soon as possible. The more hostile the new government is towards Catalonia — and the wider its majority — the better for them, because merely holding out until the municipal and Catalan elections while pointing at Madrid's outrages may be their only way of avoiding extinction. The rival is not in Congress. It is at home, and it answers to the name of Aliança Catalana.

The usual script: no, concessions and yes

One participant sums up the usual sequence like this: Junts says no, an offer of funding for the Generalitat (Catalonia's regional government) arrives, and Junts says yes. Hence the scepticism of much of the analysis, which does not rule out an identical outcome. The adverse calculation is also raised: some argue that if the party ends up accepting the decree, part of its membership could end up swelling the ranks of its rival. And there is a second price on the horizon: running out the clock on the legislature would leave them out of the Catalan Parliament too, if the electoral punishment materialises.

What we will learn in the coming hours

The signs point to an imminent decision, with an 18-hour countdown and the odd wry reference to dos quarts de 72 h i mitja. The real question is not whether the no is sincere, but whether it is final or a negotiating stance aimed at driving up the price. The difference between the two is elections.

With the no still standing, the question nobody will put their name to is this: who pays the bill — the government left without partners, or those who have spent months saying they want a vote on independence without daring to ask for one?