July Heatwave in Spain: Reality or Climate Alarmism?

Heatwave or media hype?

Where is the heatwave? This question has dominated conversations throughout July. While AEMET, Spain’s meteorological agency, issued special alert 23/2026 on July 18, predicting a high probability of warm episodes from Tuesday 21 to Thursday 23 limited to the southeast third, Guadalquivir, Ebro, and northeastern areas, Galicia barely exceeded 22 degrees and the Levante hovered around 29. The initial reaction was skepticism: if the wave doesn't cover all of Spain, is it really a heatwave? Yet simultaneously, Granada reached 42 degrees at six in the evening, and Murcia has endured three consecutive weeks without dropping below 40. This territorial gap fuels the debate.

AEMET’s alert and its geographic scope

AEMET’s special alert 23/2026, dated July 18, forecasted a high probability of a heatwave starting July 21, lasting at least until July 23, with restricted coverage: the southeast third, Guadalquivir, Ebro, northeastern depressions, Pyrenean valleys, and inland Mallorca. This meant it did not expect all of Spain to boil. However, prior media coverage—labeled by some as "information terrorism"—created expectations of a national oven. Official data shows that Seville airport recorded maximums 1.7 degrees higher in the 1990s than in the last decade, according to comparisons with AEMET records. In Madrid, the maximum temperature over the last 10 years was 0.7 degrees lower than seven years ago. This undermines the thesis of an unstoppable trend.

Ground reality: From 42 degrees in Granada to 22 in Asturias

While Granada saw six consecutive days above 40 degrees, Asturias barely touched 22. In Barcelona province, heat was intense weeks ago but then subsided. The Valencian Community recorded 33 degrees in Valencia and 34 in Alicante, with tropical minimums of 26-27 degrees preventing sleep. In Murcia, testimonies are stark: "We have gone three straight weeks without dropping below 40 degrees, with horrible nights and tremendous humidity. I am 52 and do not remember a July like this since 2003 and 2015." In La Mancha, a private thermometer read 49 degrees against AEMET’s official 44. Calima (dust haze) and smoke from fires—Lozoyuela and La Mierla in Guadalajara—turn the sky gray in Madrid, though fire isn’t solely to blame.

Skepticism: Selective memory and scientific consensus

One line of analysis argues that summer 2026 is normal for the dog days (July 15–August 15). They recall that last year July was cool, averaging 25 degrees versus 31 this year, and that perception is conditioned by media coverage. The "scientific consensus" on climate change is questioned: "Consensus is used as authority because reality is too complex. There are massive subsidies and cancellation for those who deviate." Others note that warming is undeniable due to rising minimum temperatures: in Granada, nights above 20 degrees shifted from rare to routine in just 30 years.

Economic consequences of a polarized summer

Extreme heat carries direct costs. Electricity consumption spikes with air conditioning, labor productivity drops—especially in construction and agriculture—and tourism suffers when thermometers exceed 40. But some benefit: sales of cooling systems, ice cream, and equipment repair services rise. Uncertainty about the episode’s actual duration complicates business planning. And climate debate polarization doesn’t help: while some clamor for urgent measures, others denounce a smokescreen to impose regulatory agendas.

With thermometers breaking records in some zones and temperatures remaining mild in others, the only certainty seems to be that the heatwave debate is hotter than the summer itself. Let everyone check their own thermometer. Then draw conclusions.