Israel controls 800 meters in Lebanon after ground invasion

Three villages and 800 meters: Israel's advance in Lebanon stalls

According to counts circulating in conflict monitoring channels, after more than a week of ground operations the Israeli army controls a single hill with a playground in Maroun El Ras, 800 meters from the border; between five and ten houses on the outskirts of Odaisseh, 200 meters away; and a farm with some homes in Yaroun, 600 meters away. In none of the three urban centers have troops reached the center.

The initial hypothesis was the opposite. For weeks it was argued that Israel would not open that front, that the threats were for domestic consumption with 250,000 evacuees from the north with no return date, and that the Gaza campaign remained unresolved. That scenario has been fading: several governments have asked their citizens to leave Lebanon, and Washington has requested that Baghdad close its airspace to Iranian cargo planes bound for Syria and Lebanon.

What does Israel control in southern Lebanon after the invasion?

The real map clashes with the narrative of a decisive offensive. The points cited are all less than a kilometer from the border line, pressed against the fence, and the Lebanese resistance continues to announce clashes in towns such as Khiam, where the Israeli press speaks of "important" battles and a "difficult event" in the area. That language, in Israel, usually precedes the acknowledgment of casualties.

One line of analysis holds that the goal is not to occupy territory but to establish a security strip and destroy infrastructure. Against it weighs a simple argument: without control of the ground and without a displaced population, that strip cannot hold on its own. The most skeptical add that something similar was promised in 2006 and the result then was not what was announced.

Adaisseh, Khiam and the Merkava tanks

Hezbollah publishes daily reports. On Friday 25-10-2024, according to its statement, two guided missiles struck two Merkava tanks on the outskirts of Adaisseh and set them on fire, with dead and wounded among the crew. Hours earlier it had confirmed an attempt by Israeli infantry to advance toward the municipal area of that town at 23:00 and a second at 1:50 in the morning. In southern Khiam, another report speaks of a Merkava burned in the Al-Hamams area.

The resistance itself put the number of missile launches in four days at 103, some with precision munitions that, according to its account, were being used for the first time. These are partisan figures, and should be read as such.

The Israeli press has reported, for its part, a suicide drone that hit a meeting of forces on the border and left 31 wounded. The counts circulate under military censorship: any published number is a floor, not a ceiling. The pattern repeats—first the "security event," then the name of the fallen officer—and ends up drawing a trickle that almost never reaches front-page headlines.

Israeli attrition: reservists, casualties and open fronts

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has acknowledged that the situation has worsened, that there are many open fronts and that a growing number of soldiers are being lost. His conclusion: more troops are needed. At the same time, an Israeli channel reported that the army is preparing to release reservists from service on the Lebanon front, a sign read more as exhaustion than victory.

As for the hostages, Gallant has called for "painful concessions" to close a deal for the 101 hostages still in Gaza. The word chosen, from the minister himself, marks the ground: he has run out of room to sell the operation as a clean success. Meanwhile, information disseminated by media hostile to Israel quotes the commander of the 12th Brigade: dismantling Hamas in Rafah would not be achieved for at least two more years.

Uncomfortable episodes also appear. A soldier peine fire on his superiors at a base in southern Israel, killed three and then took his own life. Hebrew media have reported the death of a company commander of the 52nd Battalion from wounds suffered in northern Gaza, and of an officer killed in clashes in southern Lebanon, in announcements that arrived days late.

How many Israelis are leaving the country?

Here the data becomes slippery. Unofficial figures circulate—up to nearly two million people—that are unconfirmed and should be taken with a grain of salt; they come from a Lebanese journalist whose video was removed from a platform. What is supported is the trend in specific destinations: 1,375 Israelis immigrated to the Netherlands in 2023, compared with 815 in 2022, the largest annual increase on record.

Domestically, evacuees from the north still have not returned. An illustrative case: the 600 residents of Avdon ran out of funds when their subsidized hotel stay ended and they were denied the state housing that other localities at the same distance from the border do receive. The bill for the northern front is being paid, for now, by those who live there.

The Iranian factor and emergency diplomacy

The most cited move is the expected arrival of General Michael Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, to coordinate the response to an Iranian missile attack. The request to Baghdad to close its airspace to Iranian air cargo goes in the same direction: narrowing the logistics corridor of the axis of resistance without entering direct combat.

Twelve resignees from the US administration have signed a joint statement calling their country's policy in Gaza a "failure" and a threat to its national security, referring to the complicity implied by the continuous flow of weapons. It is an internal criticism, not an official position, but it portrays the erosion of the diplomatic umbrella sustaining the operation.

Naim Qasem and the leadership change in Hezbollah

Hezbollah's new secretary general, Naim Qasem, has set his position on three ideas: that it was the resistance, not international resolutions, that expelled Israel from Lebanon; that Israel did not comply with Resolution 1701, with 39,000 abusa of air and sea space counted; and that they are prepared for a long war. "Time is on our side," he summed up.

On the tactical side, the use of uniforms of displaced Lebanese women by Israeli soldiers to infiltrate has been reported, along with a recruitment rumor circulating with derision: the offer of 50,000 shekels to each Druze soldier or Sudanese migrant to fight in Lebanon. Neither moves the front, but both describe the climate.

The data point no one was watching

While the focus is on Khiam and Adaisseh, Israeli media have published another figure that went almost unnoticed: 418 dead in traffic accidents in Israel during 2024, the highest in twenty years. In a country at war on several fronts, the main record of daily mortality remains on the road.

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