Ireland: New IRA threatens civil war over migrants
The New IRA threatens civil war unless migrants are expelled from Ireland. An analysis of the economic cost and the historical mirror of Spanish emigration.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
New IRA threat shakes up immigration policy in Ireland
The New IRA has told the authorities it will start a civil war if all migrants are not expelled from Ireland. The warning, reported by British media, places paramilitary conflict at the centre of a European problem: migration pressure and its economic costs. The analyses of the matter mix a security reading, historical comparison and the uncomfortable question about the role of violence.
What lies behind the ultimatum?
The threat does not come out of nowhere. Ireland has gone from being a country of emigration to becoming a destination for migration flows. That transformation strains the labour market, housing and public services. Those who back a hard line argue that only pressure will force a change of policies; those who oppose violence point out that a incivil drift discredits any social cause. European history offers few precedents in which terrorism has accelerated a political solution.
The German mirror of Spanish emigration
The contrast with Spanish emigration to Germany is inevitable. Between 1960 and 1973, more than 600,000 Spaniards emigrated as guest workers. The peak came in 1973, with around 287,000 Spanish residents at one point. Years later, around 70% had returned to Spain. Today some 200,000 Spanish citizens live in Germany, the result of later flows. The memory of that experience is often used to remind people that economic emigration is part of Europe's DNA.
Violence: does it boost or bury the cause?
Among the opposing positions, some argue that nothing will be achieved without violence, while others believe violence would strip the anti-immigration cause of public legitimacy. Irish republicanism needed decades to shake off the stigma of terrorism. Unfortunately, there are individuals for whom coercion is the only language. But the evidence points the other way: paramilitary threats rarely survive social rejection.
The New IRA's announcement is on the table. The political and economic response remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the data on European emigration suggest that migration is not stopped with threats, but with jobs, housing and prospects. And that violence, in any case, only multiplies the costs.
The New IRA has told the authorities it will start a civil war if all migrants are not expelled from Ireland. The warning, reported by British media, places paramilitary conflict at the centre of a European problem: migration pressure and its economic costs. The analyses of the matter mix a security reading, historical comparison and the uncomfortable question about the role of violence.
What lies behind the ultimatum?
The threat does not come out of nowhere. Ireland has gone from being a country of emigration to becoming a destination for migration flows. That transformation strains the labour market, housing and public services. Those who back a hard line argue that only pressure will force a change of policies; those who oppose violence point out that a incivil drift discredits any social cause. European history offers few precedents in which terrorism has accelerated a political solution.
The German mirror of Spanish emigration
The contrast with Spanish emigration to Germany is inevitable. Between 1960 and 1973, more than 600,000 Spaniards emigrated as guest workers. The peak came in 1973, with around 287,000 Spanish residents at one point. Years later, around 70% had returned to Spain. Today some 200,000 Spanish citizens live in Germany, the result of later flows. The memory of that experience is often used to remind people that economic emigration is part of Europe's DNA.
Violence: does it boost or bury the cause?
Among the opposing positions, some argue that nothing will be achieved without violence, while others believe violence would strip the anti-immigration cause of public legitimacy. Irish republicanism needed decades to shake off the stigma of terrorism. Unfortunately, there are individuals for whom coercion is the only language. But the evidence points the other way: paramilitary threats rarely survive social rejection.
The New IRA's announcement is on the table. The political and economic response remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the data on European emigration suggest that migration is not stopped with threats, but with jobs, housing and prospects. And that violence, in any case, only multiplies the costs.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (23 replies).
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