Iran's missile stockpile: debate over quantity and precision

Iran: The uncertainty surrounding unlaunched missiles

The key question in any analysis of Iranian military capability is not how many missiles have been fired, but how many remain. Today, the answer remains speculative. Estimates range from 4,000 to 10,000 projectiles, a wide gap that supports almost any thesis. What seems clear is that the decisive factor is not raw numbers, but precision and sustained production capacity.

Estimated stock: between 4,000 and 10,000 missiles

Common figures point to an arsenal exceeding 4,000 missiles of various types and accuracies. More generous estimates raise the count above 10,000 by including modernized liquid-fuel models and solid-fuel designs developed in the last decade. These figures rely on historical calculations: two decades ago, Iran was estimated to produce about 70 Shahab-3 missiles annually. Maintaining this line plus new designs should result in a considerably larger arsenal.

The problem is that no one outside Iran can verify this. Nor can those inside.

Precision: the true Achilles' heel

This is the crux of the matter. Attacking specific targets—bunkers, docked ships, air shelters—requires more than just volume. It demands accuracy within 10 meters, or warheads with dual-purpose submunitions capable of peine several meters of concrete or detonating in the air to destroy thin-skinned equipment. Even for the latter, accuracy within 150 meters is required.

The difference between a useful and a useless arsenal is measured in meters. If Iran has closed this technological gap, its missiles can inflict significant damage on air defenses, aviation, ammunition depots, and port vessels. If not, it will only create craters in the desert.

Production as the decisive factor

In a war of attrition, what matters is not just stored inventory, but ongoing manufacturing. Liquid-fuel missile production capacity has multiplied over the years, supplemented by smaller, lighter, and more accurate solid-fuel missiles. The issue is whether this supply chain can sustain intensive consumption rates.

Some argue that over 500 missiles could be expended in a single day of conflict, with only 10% hitting their target. If correct, the arsenal would deplete within weeks. Others suggest Iran has reserves for much longer, with the key lying in the depth of underground storage facilities.

The role of defenses and geopolitics

No serious analysis can ignore context. Israel possesses anti-missile defense systems and backing from regional powers who, according to some reports, intercept part of the projectiles. This reduces the real impact of any attack, regardless of the number launched.

However, some warn that Iran is not alone. Russia and China watch closely, and analysts suggest a nuclear-capable Iran would be a destabilizing factor neither major bloc wants to see materialize. In this sense, the war against Iran is sometimes interpreted as a disguised war against China.

What we still do not know

The unknown remains the same as at the start: Has Iran done its technological homework, or does it still suffer from the gap preventing effective missile use? The answer will determine whether Israel suffers a crushing defeat or if Iran loses this technological race.

Meanwhile, the missiles remain there, somewhere underground, waiting for someone to decide if launching them is worth it.