Iranian TV declares end to war, but skepticism prevails

Iran announces the end of the war: how much of it is real?

Iranian state television has officially proclaimed the end of the war, an announcement that should have been a bombshell of relief for the markets. But the reaction among analysts is not euphoria, it is deep skepticism: "I don't believe a word of it", "we'll see in a couple of months". The shadow of Lebanon and Ukraine clouds any celebration.

The war context that isn't closing

While Tehran talks of peace, hostilities continue in Lebanon with civilians killed. The idea of a global ceasefire clashes with the reality on the ground. Some analysts suggest the Iranian announcement is aimed at buying time or pressuring other negotiations, and they point out that the conflict in Ukraine remains deadlocked. "When the World Cup ends, the war comes back", the most cynical quip, reflecting distrust of official timelines.

The economic factor: oil and markets

Although the announcement should lower crude prices and calm volatility, skepticism discounts it as a mere mirage. The geopolitical risk premium will remain high until a real cessation of hostilities is verified. The oil price could react downward only briefly, as uncertainty over Iran's sincerity keeps markets cautious. No one dares declare victory: history shows that unilateral announcements rarely seal the peace.

The end of a war is always good news on paper. But when Iranian top brass lament that the US surrender "came too late", the story becomes more complicated. Perhaps the only certainty is that, as the saying goes, now is not the time to celebrate.