The Iranian rial doesn't turn €1 into €15,000 no matter how many coins you melt down
Turning €1 into €15,000 sounds like every investor's dream. The recipe: exchange euros for Iranian rials, melt down the coins and sell the cupronickel by weight. Too bad the numbers fall apart within the first minute of analysis. The real math swaps the windfall for a letdown. The math that doesn't work with the rial
The starting claim is that €1 gets you 1.57 million rials. The free market rate on Tehran's black market hovers around 700,000 rials per euro, so the margin is already cut by more than half. With 10,000-rial coins weighing 4.6 grams each, the whole pile weighs about 720 grams, not the promised 2,800 kilos. To reach that weight you'd need 600,000 coins, which at the real exchange rate cost around €800. What's more, cupronickel doesn't fetch €5 per kilo at a scrapyard: that's a foundry price, and only under certain conditions. Scaling up the scheme only multiplies the problem
Some will insist a 40-foot container changes everything. Let's say 26 tonnes of coins: 5.65 million pieces with a face value of 56,520 million rials. At an exchange rate of 1.2 million per euro, buying them costs about €47,000. Freight from Bandar Abbas to Algeciras adds €5,000, port handling another €2,500, and Iranian middlemen take €4,000 to €5,000 in commissions and bribes. Total cost tops €59,000. And that's without counting sanctions risk, international surveillance, or the chance the ship sinks before it arrives.
The fantasy of cheap arbitrage dies at the calculator: the exchange rate, the weight and the metal price don't add up. Even if someone managed to fill the container and sell the cupronickel at foundry prices, the margin would barely cover logistics. Add foreign policy into the mix, and this isn't an investment: it's an excuse to end up as a case file.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (9 replies).
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