Iran is winning the asymmetric war without a decisive battle
The war that began on February 28 shows Iran winning through attrition: costs outweigh benefits for the US, while the Gulf monarchies negotiate.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Iran has already won the asymmetric war: the cost the US cannot pay
The war that began on February 28 will not be decided on a conventional battlefield, but in energy balances and the will to resist. Iran has turned a punitive offensive into a war of attrition where asymmetry favors whoever endures. Washington's goals —toppling the regime or forcing a surrender— have failed. The conclusion emerging from the analyses is solid: Iran can win without inflicting a classic military defeat, simply by making the cost of aggression outweigh any benefit.
The strategy of attrition
The US and Israel bet on a lightning campaign, but ran into a country prepared to resist. In Vietnam it took them 3 years to withdraw, in Afghanistan 20, and in Iraq (invaded in 2003) the occupation dragged on for decades; now the inability to put troops on the ground is total. The world economy cannot withstand long periods of supply disruption. Each passing day, the cost for the Western coalition grows, while Iran maintains its production and supply capacity —even Caspian Sea water, which with minimal treatment is drinkable.
Oil as a battlefield
The US profits from expensive oil, but it also hurts China and wrecks Europe. However, the strategy becomes counterproductive when the Gulf monarchies, calculating that the American umbrella is no longer reliable, secretly negotiate with Tehran and Beijing over the new energy architecture. Israel has had missiles rain down on its refineries, and Saudi Arabia and the Emirates look the other way. The threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump floats, is a desperate move that would only make energy even more expensive and turn China, India, Japan and South Korea against the US.
Israel's military collapse and the nuclear escalation
By the thirtieth day of war, the Israeli army has collapsed, according to its own General Staff. Russia has raised the nuclear temperature, and Washington is torn between saving face and the impossibility of winning. The massive drone attack on the USS Gerald R. Ford, which according to Trump was attacked from 17 angles, left the ship out of action and forced its withdrawal to the Mediterranean. Every sinking of an American vessel is a humiliation that accelerates internal political attrition.
What now?
Iran is not seeking a formal surrender, but victory through the exhaustion of its adversary. Not being defeated is already a victory. The US and Israel bet everything on one card and failed. The Saudis and Emiratis are already negotiating with Tehran, and American influence in the Gulf is fading. Meanwhile, China is deploying its navy to protect its oil tankers. The American empire, as has been said, is watching its end live. The asymmetric war has a clear winner: Iran.
Related discussions in the forum
The war that began on February 28 will not be decided on a conventional battlefield, but in energy balances and the will to resist. Iran has turned a punitive offensive into a war of attrition where asymmetry favors whoever endures. Washington's goals —toppling the regime or forcing a surrender— have failed. The conclusion emerging from the analyses is solid: Iran can win without inflicting a classic military defeat, simply by making the cost of aggression outweigh any benefit.
The strategy of attrition
The US and Israel bet on a lightning campaign, but ran into a country prepared to resist. In Vietnam it took them 3 years to withdraw, in Afghanistan 20, and in Iraq (invaded in 2003) the occupation dragged on for decades; now the inability to put troops on the ground is total. The world economy cannot withstand long periods of supply disruption. Each passing day, the cost for the Western coalition grows, while Iran maintains its production and supply capacity —even Caspian Sea water, which with minimal treatment is drinkable.
Oil as a battlefield
The US profits from expensive oil, but it also hurts China and wrecks Europe. However, the strategy becomes counterproductive when the Gulf monarchies, calculating that the American umbrella is no longer reliable, secretly negotiate with Tehran and Beijing over the new energy architecture. Israel has had missiles rain down on its refineries, and Saudi Arabia and the Emirates look the other way. The threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump floats, is a desperate move that would only make energy even more expensive and turn China, India, Japan and South Korea against the US.
Israel's military collapse and the nuclear escalation
By the thirtieth day of war, the Israeli army has collapsed, according to its own General Staff. Russia has raised the nuclear temperature, and Washington is torn between saving face and the impossibility of winning. The massive drone attack on the USS Gerald R. Ford, which according to Trump was attacked from 17 angles, left the ship out of action and forced its withdrawal to the Mediterranean. Every sinking of an American vessel is a humiliation that accelerates internal political attrition.
What now?
Iran is not seeking a formal surrender, but victory through the exhaustion of its adversary. Not being defeated is already a victory. The US and Israel bet everything on one card and failed. The Saudis and Emiratis are already negotiating with Tehran, and American influence in the Gulf is fading. Meanwhile, China is deploying its navy to protect its oil tankers. The American empire, as has been said, is watching its end live. The asymmetric war has a clear winner: Iran.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (90 replies).
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