Investors trying to predict the market.

The market cannot be reliably predicted, and the post sums it up in one line and one image. Warren Buffett's bet, settled in 2017, ended with a cumulative 125.8% for the index versus 36.3% for the hedge funds.

## The meme and market prediction

The post is just one line —"Investors trying to predict the market. The market:"— with an image behind it. The joke works because everyone has lived through that second act: someone believes they have read the market's direction, and the market responds with something that was not in the script.

The format has been circulating for years, and what stands out is not the humor. It is that it sums up a serious debate about whether anticipating market movements is a possible job or an elegant way to lose money.

## The bet Buffett won in 2017

**Warren Buffett** bet in 2007 with Protege Partners that an index fund tracking the **S&P 500** would beat a basket of hedge funds over ten years. He won. The bet was settled in 2017 with a cumulative **125.8%** for the index versus 36.3% for the funds.

The funds were chosen by the other side, and even so the index ate the comparison alive. It does not prove that anyone ever gets it right, but it is a reminder of the weight of fees and noise.

## Efficient markets, since 1965

**Eugene Fama** formulated the efficient market hypothesis in 1965. **Burton Malkiel** published "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" in 1973. In 2019, index funds overtook actively managed funds in assets in the **United States**, according to Morningstar.

None of this turns a joke into advice: investing carries the risk of losing money and past results do not guarantee future ones.