Investing €200,000 in the stock market: betting on FCC from €7

Making €200,000 in the stock market: buy FCC at €7 and sell at €27

Buying 10,000 FCC shares at 7 euros and selling them at 27 yields a profit of 200,000 euros. On paper, it's basic arithmetic. In practice, it means holding onto a construction company with half its business under suspicion while the market shakes you. That was the challenge someone set in May 2013 and wrote down to be audited later: let this be saved and in a few years we'll see if there's an 'owned' or not.

The thesis wasn't a lab secret. FCC was trading at 7 euros, management had a questionable track record, and debt was drowning the balance sheet. The argument was simple: it's hard to do worse, there's room for improvement, and a CEO willing to risk his own assets to get the numbers in order. Blood in the streets, the classic.

Why buy a Spanish construction company in 2013?

The water business emerged as the key asset: recurring revenue, long-term contracts, predictable cash flow when civil engineering was in decline. Added to this were two major contracts, hinted at before confirmation: a bridge in the UK and a water project in the Middle East. The other strategy was selling off divisions and a severe staff reduction, as the increase in value depended on reducing debt and increasing EBITDA, not on signing new projects.

Some saw it clearly, others saw it as an act of faith. The reasonable doubt was financial: with town halls short of money to pay for waste management contracts and the British deal on the table, who would buy the bad businesses? The cynical answer from the challenge's author himself: those who believe they are good, or those who get them cheap.

The tax calculation: why the sale date changes the outcome

One of the most discussed implications was the timing. For a capital gain of 5,000 euros, selling within the same year adds the gain to the IRPEF (personal income tax) base, and withholding tax can increase; waiting until January 1st reclassifies it. The brackets discussed ranged between 21% and 27% for holdings over a year, compared to a marginal rate that in the worst-case scenario approached 50% when the operation was mixed with annual salary.

The corollary, repeated ad nauseam: taxation should not dictate when you enter or exit. If you pay, it means you've made a profit. The law applies by FIFO (first-in, first-out), so in portfolios with multiple entries, the actual calculation is messier than it appears.

From €16 to less than €6: when the chart stopped smiling

The path, according to the narrative, reached its midpoint. Then the drip began. The stock went through €16 with the promise of climbing to €25 in two years, positions from large international investors appeared, who according to comments were already losing money on the stock, and the price slid to €7.53, then to €5.99. Each low was seen as a buying opportunity. Some even asked for a loan to increase their stake.

The fine detail lies in how that fall was managed: staggered entries, partial exits, buying back in at €8.55 after consolidating the rebound. The complete breakdown of those operations, with prices and dates, offers a lesson on how difficult it is to maintain a thesis when the market only partially agrees with you for months.

Who is right in an open trade?

The challenge was never closed. The latest messages reveal the weariness: the original author disappears, the stock continues to correct, and someone sarcastically asks how those €200,000 are doing. Against the faith of the first day, the most honest response from the group is the warning the manager himself dropped: more important than knowing when to get in is knowing when to get out.

An uncomfortable sarracena remains. The calculation was impeccable and the logic defensible. What cannot be modeled is time or the patience of the holder. With debt still looming and the stock far from its target, the operation remains without a clear owner: neither 'owned' nor a antiestéticat, just an open position awaiting judgment.