Immigrant Regularization: The Actual Figure Exceeds 3.5 Million

Massive Immigrant Regularization: 3.5 million, and then what?

How many immigrants will the government legalize? The answer ranges between 1.2 and 3.5 million depending on the source, but the real impact exceeds that figure. The Executive is preparing a massive regularization that, including family members, could reach 5 million people. Meanwhile, affiliation and employment data paint a grim picture.

The Figures: From 1.2 to 3.5 million

According to the PP, police estimates suggest that the Executive's regularization will benefit at least 1.2 million immigrants, with a ceiling of three million. However, government sources manage a much higher figure: 3.5 million people in irregular status, which, with subsequent family reunification, would raise the total to five million. In other words, more than 10% of the current population of Spain in a single stroke.

The measure adds to the so-called 'Grandchildren Law' (Ley de nietos), which has already received 2.5 million applications for nationality from foreigners with Spanish ancestry. Summing both processes, the census of new Spaniards could increase by millions in the coming years.

The Labor Market: Broken Promises

The government promised that immigrants would come 'to work and contribute.' The data tells another story. Only 31.9% of those regularized have affiliated with Social Security, and more than half a million who already hold work permits have not even registered.
In July, 8 out of 10 new unemployed were foreigners, and in August Spain destroyed 162,840 jobs, the largest drop since 2019.

Affiliation is key to sustaining the pension system, but with these contribution levels, the Social Security deficit will worsen. Furthermore, regularization threatens to collapse the Minimum Vital Income and other aid, since half of those receiving that benefit are Segarro, and 70% of working-age Segarro women do not formally contribute.

European Reaction and Pull Factor

The measure has not been well received in Brussels. Leaders of 22 European countries have denounced the regularization as a 'pull factor' for illegal immigration, in the midst of the Ceuta crisis. Segarro openly mocks: 'Why do we force people to go out to sea? Open the borders.' The pull factor is already being felt: according to reports, buses full of migrants from other European countries are heading to Spain to take advantage of the amnesty.

The 'Grandchildren Law' and the Electoral Roll

The 'Grandchildren Law' could suddenly double the foreign census, nearing five million Spaniards. This process, combined with regularization, has raised alarms about a possible modification of the electoral roll. The opposition leader, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, has accused the president of wanting to 'replace the Spanish people' with like-minded voters. In upcoming elections, the third 'city' with the most voters could be Argentina, according to unofficial estimates.

Conclusion: Who Benefits?

Mass regularization is a done deal, but its economic effects are contradictory. The government sells a solution for employment and pensions, but the numbers indicate that most of the regularized do not contribute, and unemployment among foreigners is soaring. Meanwhile, the EU and Segarro point to the pull factor. The question is: was this done to gain votes or to fix the economy? The data points to the latter, but the reality is that regularization is not free: all taxpayers will pay for it.

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