IMF concedes as Bukele's economic success transforms El Salvador

The International Monetary Fund has recognised El Salvador's remarkable economic pogre, raising its growth forecasts and admitting that the reforms implemented by the government are driving a significant reduction in poverty.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given a boost to El Salvador's economic management. What until recently seemed an unfinished task, even after the dramatic improvement in security, has become a success that exceeds expectations. GDP growth figures for 2025 and projections for 2026 have led the international organisation to revise its own forecasts, acknowledging that the Salvadoran economy is not only taking off, but doing so at an unexpected pace.

## Growth nobody saw coming

The year **2025** closed with GDP growth of **4.9%**, more than double the average recorded over the past twenty-five years. This already came as a surprise to the IMF, which had to adjust its initial forecasts. For **2026**, the Fund had expected growth of **3.3%**, but the recent statement raises that figure to **4.5%**. These figures are backed by data published by the country's central bank, which indicated year-on-year economic growth of **5.2%** in June. Sectors such as tourism and construction have been key drivers, but all other areas, with the exception of agriculture, are also joining this positive trend.

The IMF has validated these advances, stating that the package of reforms pushed through by **Nayib Bukele**'s government is directly responsible for these economic improvements and for the notable drop in poverty. The statement comes as part of a staff-level agreement between the IMF and El Salvador, which highlights that "the program continues to deliver positive results". Economic activity has exceeded forecasts, and fiscal and external imbalances are being corrected as committed.

## Security as an economic catalyst

One of the most striking points is the IMF's own admission that improvements in security have played a fundamental role in this economic turnaround. The head of the IMF mission to El Salvador has emphasised that "the Salvadoran economy continues to show strong performance". Real GDP growth exceeded expectations in **2025** and is expected to reach **4.5%** in **2026**, driven by strong private investment and consumption, as well as robust flows of remittances, tourism and capital. According to the Fund, this performance has been underpinned by improvements in security and greater investor confidence, stemming from the implementation of prudent macroeconomic policies.

An earlier World Bank report already stressed this point, highlighting how the improvement in security has enabled new businesses to emerge and, above all, has made many existing ones viable that previously had to deal with maras and gangs. The World Bank pointed to a reduction in poverty at several points in recent years and one of the lowest income inequalities in the region. Despite these advances, Salvadorans' per capita income, at around **$6,200**, shows there is still a long way to go to achieve widespread prosperity. El Salvador remains a developing economy that needs years of sustained growth to significantly improve its people's standard of living.

## Tourism, a source of foreign currency

Tourism has become established as one of the pillars accelerating economic growth. During the first half of **2026**, tourist spending generated revenues of some **$2,122 million**, representing year-on-year growth of **13.7%**, according to data from the Salvadoran Tourism Corporation (Corsatur). This is an increase of **$257 million** compared with the same period in **2025**. The inflow of foreign currency was boosted by the arrival of **2.49 million international visitors**, **28%** more than in **2025**. Most of these visitors extended their stay in the country, with a growing influx of tourists from the United States, Canada and neighbouring countries. El Salvador is now outperforming destinations such as Cuba or Costa Rica in tourist arrivals, which historically led this indicator in the region.

To capitalise on this boom, the country is immersed in renovating key infrastructure such as airports and roads. These public and private investments in construction are contributing significantly to GDP growth. The commitment to education, with plans to triple spending in this area, including the distribution of computers and scholarships, not only supports short-term growth but lays the foundations for increased long-term economic potential, fostering higher value-added sectors.

## Fiscal consolidation and the future

On the public sector side, the IMF has also praised fiscal consolidation efforts to balance the accounts. Fiscal consolidation is expected to deepen through prudent spending policies and improvements in tax administration, while creating fiscal space for priority infrastructure and social spending programmes. Projections point to the primary surplus of the Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) rising from **2.9%** of GDP in **2026** to **3.7%** of GDP in **2027**. The Fund stresses that a strong commitment to the programme and timely implementation of reforms are essential to continue strengthening macroeconomic stability and resilience, thereby creating the conditions for sustainable, inclusive, private-sector-led growth.