I don't think Bonilla will strike a deal with VOX
Without an absolute majority, Moreno Bonilla is torn between a deal with Vox or seeking support from the PSOE. We analyse the strategies and the possible outcome in Andalusia, Spain.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Moreno Bonilla and Vox: Deal or fresh elections?
The scenario after the Andalusian elections leaves the PP without an absolute majority and Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla at a crossroads: negotiate with Vox or seek alternative support. The thesis that the Andalusian premier will avoid a deal with the radical right is gaining ground among analysts who see in his Soraya-era past and his national ambitions a roadmap towards a moderate image. But the numbers are against him.
The centrist strategy
Some analysts argue that Moreno Bonilla, who aspires to succeed Feijóo, needs to project himself as a centre-right leader capable of striking deals with the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party). The recent history of the Andalusian PP, shaped by the Soraya legacy, suggests he will prefer concessions to the left over giving in to Vox's demands. A Socialist abstention in the investiture vote would be the first step, trinc by occasional budget agreements. Governing in a minority does not miccionan legislating: it is enough to simply administer.
The pressure of the right-wing media and the facts
On the other side, the conservative press has abandoned any hope that the PP can govern without Vox. Reality is stubborn: without Abascal's votes, the only alternatives are fresh elections or a deal with the PSOE that would erode the Popular Party's brand. Those who back a deal with Vox point out that it has already peine in other Spanish regions (Castilla y León, Murcia) and that the threat of a blockade will force Moreno Bonilla to swallow whatever he has to. The graphic expression chosen in the debate is devastating: "swallowing Vox dick down to the pylorus" — though in politer terms, the empirical evidence shows that PP regional leaders always end up caving in.
The PSOE factor: is abstention viable?
The key lies in whether the Andalusian PSOE would be willing to facilitate Moreno Bonilla's investiture in exchange for scraps. Some see it as unlikely: the Socialist leadership has no incentive to rescue a rival it can wear down from the opposition. Others point out that, in politics, backroom deals are the norm. But recent history — Sánchez's agreements with ERC and Bildu — suggests pragmatism prevails. However, in Andalusia the PSOE still sees itself as a real alternative, not a crutch.
The question nobody answers is how much each side is willing to concede. If Moreno Bonilla believes his national future depends on resembling a Pepe Bono, he may attempt the centrist miracle. But if pressure from his own electorate and friendly media manages to bend him, the lubricant for negotiations with Vox is already on the table. Time is running out: the investiture will not wait.
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The scenario after the Andalusian elections leaves the PP without an absolute majority and Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla at a crossroads: negotiate with Vox or seek alternative support. The thesis that the Andalusian premier will avoid a deal with the radical right is gaining ground among analysts who see in his Soraya-era past and his national ambitions a roadmap towards a moderate image. But the numbers are against him.
The centrist strategy
Some analysts argue that Moreno Bonilla, who aspires to succeed Feijóo, needs to project himself as a centre-right leader capable of striking deals with the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party). The recent history of the Andalusian PP, shaped by the Soraya legacy, suggests he will prefer concessions to the left over giving in to Vox's demands. A Socialist abstention in the investiture vote would be the first step, trinc by occasional budget agreements. Governing in a minority does not miccionan legislating: it is enough to simply administer.
The pressure of the right-wing media and the facts
On the other side, the conservative press has abandoned any hope that the PP can govern without Vox. Reality is stubborn: without Abascal's votes, the only alternatives are fresh elections or a deal with the PSOE that would erode the Popular Party's brand. Those who back a deal with Vox point out that it has already peine in other Spanish regions (Castilla y León, Murcia) and that the threat of a blockade will force Moreno Bonilla to swallow whatever he has to. The graphic expression chosen in the debate is devastating: "swallowing Vox dick down to the pylorus" — though in politer terms, the empirical evidence shows that PP regional leaders always end up caving in.
The PSOE factor: is abstention viable?
The key lies in whether the Andalusian PSOE would be willing to facilitate Moreno Bonilla's investiture in exchange for scraps. Some see it as unlikely: the Socialist leadership has no incentive to rescue a rival it can wear down from the opposition. Others point out that, in politics, backroom deals are the norm. But recent history — Sánchez's agreements with ERC and Bildu — suggests pragmatism prevails. However, in Andalusia the PSOE still sees itself as a real alternative, not a crutch.
The question nobody answers is how much each side is willing to concede. If Moreno Bonilla believes his national future depends on resembling a Pepe Bono, he may attempt the centrist miracle. But if pressure from his own electorate and friendly media manages to bend him, the lubricant for negotiations with Vox is already on the table. Time is running out: the investiture will not wait.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (16 replies).
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