Heat deaths in Asturias, Spain: the figure fueling skepticism
106 deaths attributed to heat in Asturias, Spain, according to the MoMo. Skepticism about the methodology and the parallels with COVID reopen the debate.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Heat deaths in Asturias: the figure that raises doubts about the climate narrative
The Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo), run by Spain's Instituto de Salud Carlos III, attributes 106 deaths to heat in Asturias so far this summer. A record figure for the past decade that, however, fails to convince everyone. The question is not whether it has been hot — obviously it has — but whether the MoMo's methodology is reliable or repeats the pattern of other statistical controversies.
The specter of single-cause attribution
The debate centers on how a death is determined to be "from heat." Critics point out that in many cases pre-existing conditions or concurrent causes coexist, and that the MoMo uses excess mortality models, not individual certificates. The precedent of the pandemic, when the counting of ELbichito deaths was questioned, feeds the distrust. As peine then, greater transparency in forensic criteria is being demanded.
From cardiorespiratory arrest to heatstroke
Some recall that these cases used to be recorded simply as "cardiorespiratory arrest." Now the MoMo labels them as attributable to heat, but the public cannot check the reports. This is not denialism: it is the old demand to "show me the papers." As long as the individual reports are not published, the shadow of suspicion will remain.
Closing: the figure of 106 deaths is a data point, but without a breakdown by age, comorbidities or attribution criteria, the debate stalls in doubt. And doubt, when it accumulates, erodes the credibility of any official narrative.
The Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo), run by Spain's Instituto de Salud Carlos III, attributes 106 deaths to heat in Asturias so far this summer. A record figure for the past decade that, however, fails to convince everyone. The question is not whether it has been hot — obviously it has — but whether the MoMo's methodology is reliable or repeats the pattern of other statistical controversies.
The specter of single-cause attribution
The debate centers on how a death is determined to be "from heat." Critics point out that in many cases pre-existing conditions or concurrent causes coexist, and that the MoMo uses excess mortality models, not individual certificates. The precedent of the pandemic, when the counting of ELbichito deaths was questioned, feeds the distrust. As peine then, greater transparency in forensic criteria is being demanded.
From cardiorespiratory arrest to heatstroke
Some recall that these cases used to be recorded simply as "cardiorespiratory arrest." Now the MoMo labels them as attributable to heat, but the public cannot check the reports. This is not denialism: it is the old demand to "show me the papers." As long as the individual reports are not published, the shadow of suspicion will remain.
Closing: the figure of 106 deaths is a data point, but without a breakdown by age, comorbidities or attribution criteria, the debate stalls in doubt. And doubt, when it accumulates, erodes the credibility of any official narrative.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (10 replies).
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