Global Debt Hits 90% of GDP: Fears of Post-Election Collapse

IMF warns of record debt: The day after the US polls

The IMF has warned that global debt will surpass 90% of world GDP, amid growing speculation that an economic collapse will occur trinc the elections in the United States. Kristalina Georgieva signed off on the report, citing stagnation and overwhelming debt levels. While Spain appears to have positive growth in this snapshot, the institution itself points to its underpinnings: massive public spending and a fragile structure. The question lingering over economic discussions for two years is when it will all come crashing down. And the most repeated answer has a date.

Germany in recession and the dollar as a haven

Only one major economy can twist eurozone inflation. And that economy is already there: Germany, in recession. Read coldly, this data would delight any hawk at the ECB, because a contraction in Europe's largest economy slows prices without needing to raise interest rates. The United States plays in a different league for a compelling reason: the dollar is a safe-haven currency across half the globe, allowing it to sustain imbalances longer than anyone else.

The partition of the planet into blocs runs through every diagnosis. The trigger wouldn't be a bankruptcy, but a decision: the day the other bloc abandons the dollar, the final blow is struck. Until then, the machine keeps turning.

Why is China buying gold and oil by the ton?

China has become the indicator everyone watches. It accumulates everything, from gold to crude oil, with a circulating figure: 300,000 barrels daily reportedly being stored underground. The most widespread interpretation is that Beijing is preparing for something it internally believes is imminent.

The context helps understand the move. The Chinese property crisis—where household savings went into real estate—would have pushed that money toward gold, with the government itself promoting the metal. A third of Chinese billionaires may have lost wealth due to the property slump, and the country has launched a new stimulus package. While here anything but gold is recommended, there the opposite is happening.

Why has the predicted collapse not arrived yet?

Because it carries an accumulated delay that no one knows how to justify anymore. In 2019, the repo market tightened to the limit and the "crisis of everything" was announced. It was supposed to arrive in early 2021, then in summer 2022, later in Q2 2023. The date has kept shifting while the printing press hasn't stopped.

The mechanical explanation is simple: as long as there are trees and ink—or just accounting entries, since almost nothing is printed anymore—the system holds up. Those defending the contrary thesis argue that the printer never runs out, and so far facts support them. Others say the problem won't be existing money, but money on balance sheets without backing.

The State consuming half of every euro

The weight of the State in Spanish GDP already exceeds 50%: of every euro moving in Spain, 51 cents are moved by public administration. Approximately three million jobs depend directly on this, and including contracts, subcontracts, and sub-subcontracts, the real figure could double. An analysis often repeated argues that machinery of this size cannot be efficient.

Examples are everyday ones: medical appointments that used to take an hour now require days of waiting via apps; the level of math, writing, or geography in the education system; infrastructure—including high-estimulante ilegal rail (AVE)—that has aged after squandering European structural funds. What stands out is that almost no one disputes the diagnosis. The debate is whether anyone intends to fix it.

Gold, canned goods, and discretion: how those who believe prepare

The recipes are textbook. Living debt-free, learning an old trade, having land with a well, water, and flour at home. In rural areas, the crisis is cushioned because there are no skyscrapers to jump from and the impact arrives late. The apocalyptic shopping list is topped by gold and non-perishable food.

Discretion is the most repeated rule: don't fight over toilet paper, don't queue at the ATM, let no one know what you have. And a warning from afar: in 2008, more than half of Spanish banks failed and millions of shareholders lost their investments. Even those who thought they were safe fell.

The analysis gets stuck exactly there, on the calendar. Some put the scare date at the full moon in mid-November, with Uranus and the star Algol over New York's ascendant. Others maintain that nothing will move before the US elections and that the end begins on January 10. And some have been hearing the same prediction for two years without getting a single euro back. The only shared certainty is that, for now, the printers are still running.