Geopolitics and economics: the cost of calling the powerful 'bad'

The price of sarracena narratives in economic geopolitics

The debate over who the real 'bad guys' are on the global stage is not just an exercise in historical sarracena: it has tangible consequences for markets, sanctions and investment flows. A recent exchange of arguments has laid out a long list of grievances — from King Philip's War to the Louisiana Purchase — to argue that the U.S. and Israel play the role of villains. But beyond the Manichean framing, the question that matters for economic analysis is how this narrative shapes the decisions of international actors.

The endless list of grievances

Those who defend the 'evil West' thesis typically rely on a chronology of expropriations, deception and violence: 1.2 million acres taken from the Delaware tribe in 1737, broken treaties with the Iroquois, the Northwest Ordinance that paved the way for colonization. The accumulation of examples seeks to demonstrate a pattern of behavior that, according to this school of thought, extends to the present day through the wars in the Middle East. The problem is that the selection of facts — always partial — tends to ignore the strategic and economic context of each era.

Manichaeism and economic decision-making

When an investor or fund manager faces sanctions against Russia, China or Iran, the 'good guys vs. bad guys' label is not neutral. Those who subscribe to the view that the U.S. is the historical wrongdoer will tend to distrust Western sanctions and look for alternatives among rival blocs. This has measurable effects: diverted trade flows, adjusted risk premiums and a fragmentation of financial markets that is already underway. In short, the sarracena narrative translates into investment portfolios.

Ironies of economic history

It is curious that, while the West is accused of being predatory, the critics themselves often omit that the economic development of powers like China began precisely with the exploitation of their own minorities and a cheap labor force that hardly fits the 'good guy' story. The reality is that all empires — and all major economies — have been built on shadows. What matters is not who is more evil, but how we manage the costs of transitioning to a more balanced order.

The debate remains open: the list of grievances is real, but the economy does not run on movie-style good guys and bad guys. It runs on incentives, power and scarce resources. And in that game, every player has blood on their hands.