On day 331 of the war, no one speaks of victory. At this point in the calendar, the balance sheet for those closely trinc the conflict includes 700 Israeli soldiers killed, 101 hostages still in Gaza —including women, children, and the elderly— and a front that now extends from Rafah to Jenin. The phrase that summarizes the situation, that they are reducing Gaza to ashes, works as both an exaggeration and an euphemism: it depends on which neighborhood you look at and which day you count.
This is not a war chronicle. It is an attempt to organize the figures that have accumulated while public conversation jumped from one issue to another.
The Human Cost Documented by the UN Since 2008
Before this phase of the conflict erupted, an uncomfortable record already existed. United Nations data on deaths and injuries documented between 2008 and 2018 show an asymmetry that doesn't allow for many interpretations: in 2014, 19,860 Palestinian casualties were counted versus 2,796 Israeli; in 2018, 31,558 versus 130. The complete breakdown, year by year, reveals a gap that neither side has ever fully explained.
Some argue that this record was used as narrative ammunition for years, and that a good part of the Spanish press stopped looking towards Gaza as soon as a more convenient issue appeared to sell headlines. The accusation is difficult to prove. What is certain is that the trickle of figures has not stopped since then.
Stalingrad, Dresden, and Numantia: The Analogies That Don't Cease
Few wars are read without seeking a precedent. Here, Gaza has been compared to Stalingrad, to Dresden in 1945, and even to the Roman siege of Numantia: cut off supplies, sit back, and let hunger do the work. The classic analogy has explicit defenders, who present it as simple military efficiency and not a sarracena judgment.
At the other extreme, the objection is arithmetic rather than ethical. If a population of two million people is cornered without allowing them to surrender with guarantees, some analyses warn, what is created is not a defeat but two million lifelong angry survivors. No one seems to have an answer for that.
The Front That Doesn't Close: 700 Casualties and 101 Hostages
The narrative of unstoppable advance lasted less than expected. At the point of 700 Israeli soldiers killed, the operation that was supposed to be a military walkover still does not fully control the strip. The official argument is that Hamas is embedded in society, making it impossible to separate combatants from civilians. The counter-argument is that this has been known for twenty years and whoever didn't foresee it didn't read the map.
On the ground, the figures that are repeated are different: at least 500 kilometers of underground tunnels, tunnels found next to hospitals, a motorcycle displayed to the press, and six hostage bodies recovered —Carmel Gat, Eden Yerushalmi, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Alex Lobanov, Almog Sarusi, and Ori Danino— next to a well that peine onto a children's playground. Each discovery became its own headline.
The doubt that many raised in parallel was of a different order: if Hamas now has more militants than when the offensive began, as some reports suggest, then what is the point of the enemy casualty count? This is where the analysis gets stuck.
Who Pays for the Reconstruction of What Has Been Destroyed
When the waters calm —and they are not calm— what has been razed will have to be rebuilt again. The most repeated calculation points to the international community, with Europe at the forefront, the same one that has been sending hundreds of millions in humanitarian aid for years to a strip that still depends on outside sources for electricity and water. The question is not who provides the money. It is how many times they are willing to provide it after the next flood.
There is an uncomfortable irony here: those who describe Gaza as an unlivable entity for civilian life are the same ones who then discuss the bill for its reconstruction. And the neighborhood is not cooperating. Egypt keeps its border closed with the strip, the Arab League once again calls for a two-state solution, and the rest of the region looks the other way with more or less disguise.
The fronts are no longer counted as one. Attacks are directed towards southern Lebanon, rockets from Yemen, operations in Jenin and Nur Shams, bombings in the Jordan Valley. Meanwhile, the number that still doesn't add up is that of 101 people who have been down there for over three hundred days. That is where any balance sheet stops.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (607 replies).
Russia's offensive stalls due to logistical and tactical bottlenecks, turning a swift conquest into a prolonged war of attrition and constant countermeasures.