Forum user claims Alvise could cost PP and Vox up to 10 seats

Forum user claims Alvise could cost PP and Vox up to 10 seats

In a forum debate, the idea has been raised that Alvise Pérez's candidacy will run nationwide and that, according to a calculation circulating among participants, it would win no seats of its own but would cost the PP and Vox up to ten seats. Another forum user argues it would be odd for him to win nothing in Madrid or Barcelona if he keeps 800,000 votes. The paradox being discussed is that a party with no parliamentary representation could still shape who gets it.

The thread claims Spain's electoral system punishes vote fragmentation in small constituencies. That is why the forecast being floated is not that Alvise makes it into Congress, but that his presence on the ballot siphons tactical votes from the right. One participant recalls his videos from Brussels counting the perks of MEPs: sign in, get paid, leave.

Why run if he won't win seats?

One forum user argues the answer lies in public funding: a party that does not stand loses the state subsidy that is distributed by votes, by seats and directly to the party. Running, even without entering the chamber, would keep the organisation alive and the money flowing. That, according to this participant, is the logic explaining why he won't give up on scraping something in Madrid or Barcelona as long as he holds that floor of 800,000 ballots.

Some in the thread claim the PSOE created him to dilute the Vox vote. It is a recurring accusation in rumour mills, with no evidence whatsoever. Another forum user says the arithmetic effect, if confirmed, benefits the left without anyone having lifted a finger.

Tactical voting and the calendar trap

One participant who voted for him in the European elections says he won't do it again. Voting for him for the European Parliament was, in his words, just to piss them off. For a general election the calculus changes: the tactical vote points to Vox and, failing that, to the PP. Another forum user points to a different path: that he could strike a deal to join the PP's or Vox's lists in exchange for his potential votes. The offer, he says, would be substantial. He has given no sign of accepting. A personality-driven party, with no structure or succession, would face a structural problem: it depends on a single name. And that name, according to the harshest critics, is burned out.

The promise that has spread most widely among his supporters is that he will raffle off his salary and allowances if he wins. An MEP's allowances, they point out, are a fortune. The specific figure floated in some circles is $5,000 for the winner, an amount several find too small compared with what a European seat brings in.

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With these numbers, Alvise's candidacy should be irrelevant. It isn't. It siphons votes, shapes the outcome and forces the two right-wing parties to fight for every single seat. If he repeats his 800,000 votes, the map shifts. If he doesn't, the experiment fizzles out on its own. Nobody is betting heavily on either outcome.